Dividends Value » CASY

15 Dividend Stocks With A 15% Yield In 15 Years *

D4L — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 07:30:02 +0000

“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”
- Wayne Gretzky

I know very little about hockey, but I have always loved this quote. It can be applied to so many things in life, including investing. Just as Gretzky has a vision as to where the puck is going, investors need to have a similar vision, and not get caught up on short-sighted distractions. Investing in dividend growth stocks requires a long-term vision. It is easy to run a screen and find stocks that are paying a 15% yield today; but how long will they be able to sustain it? Instead you may want to skate to where the future 15% yielders are going to be. To do that, here are some things you need to know…

Tracking Yield On Cost

Yield-on-cost (YOC) is simply Current Annual Dividend dividend by Original Cost Per Share. YOC not a substitute for calculating an internal rate of return (IRR). The IRR calculation takes into account both capital appreciation and the timing of cash flows (purchases, sells and dividends). However, as a dividend growth investor, my primary focus is on dividend growth and since my desired holding period is forever, capital appreciation is little more than an interesting side note. YOC is much better suited for tracking dividend growth since it is individually tied to a stock and takes into account all the variations of growth rates over time, along with the timing of purchases. Also, it is useful when trying to explain to our income investor brethren why we chose the stock yielding 3% over ‘Amalgamated Risk’ at 8%.

My D4L-Data model includes projections of YOC after 5, 10, 15 and 20 years. These projections are derived by growing the current yield using the dividend growth rate. As for the dividend growth rate, I use the minimum of the 1, 3, 5, 7 or 10 year compound annual growth rates; or 15% if in every consecutive 4-year period dividends grew on average in excess of 15%.

15 Dividend Stocks With A 15% Yield In 15 Years

Sorting the stocks in my D4L-Data model by their 15 Year YOC and throwing out some bad apples, we are left with these 15 stocks that are projected to have a 15% YOC in 15 years:

T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) operates one of the largest no-load mutual fund complexes in the United States.
Yield: 1.8% | Growth: 15.0% | 15 Year YOC: 15.0%

Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH) is one of the leading wholesale distributors of pharmaceuticals, medical/surgical supplies and related products to a broad range of health care customers.
Yield: 1.8% | Growth: 15.0% | 15 Year YOC: 15.0%

Owens & Minor Inc. (OMI) is a leading domestic distributor of medical and surgical supplies to the acute care market, a health care supply chain management company, and a direct-to-consumer (DTC) supplier of testing and monitoring supplies for diabetes.
Yield: 2.4% | Growth: 13.2% | 15 Year YOC: 15.6%

Praxair Inc. (PX) is the largest producer of industrial gases in North and South America, and the second largest worldwide. It also provides ceramic and metallic coatings.
Yield: 2.0% | Growth: 15.0% | 15 Year YOC: 15.9%

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) provides supplemental health and life insurance in the U.S. and Japan. Products are marketed at worksites and help fill gaps in primary insurance coverage. Approximately 80% of earnings comes from Japan and 20% from the U.S.
Yield: 2.3% | Growth: 15.0% | 15 Year YOC: 18.2%

Stryker Corp. (SYK) makes specialty surgical and medical products such as orthopedic implants, endoscopic items, and hospital beds.
Yield: 1.2% | Growth: 20.0% | 15 Year YOC: 18.6%

Casey’s General Stores Inc. (CASY) has over 1,500 convenience stores in the Midwest, selling food, beverage, health and automotive products.
Yield: 1.3% | Growth: 19.8% | 15 Year YOC: 19.4%

Weyco Group, Inc. (WEYS) distributes, wholesale & retail, men’s branded footwear in the U.S., Canada, Europe; it offers casual footwear, dress shoes and accessories under Florsheim, other brands.
Yield: 2.6% | Growth: 15.0% | 15 Year YOC: 21.0%

Walgreen Co. (WAG) is the largest U.S. retail drug chain in terms of revenues, this company operates more than 8,000 drug stores throughout the U.S. and Puerto Rico.
Yield: 1.7% | Growth: 18.5% | 15 Year YOC: 21.7%

Nucor Corporation (NUE) is the largest minimill steelmaker in the U.S., Nucor has one of the most diverse product lines of any steelmaker in the Americas.
Yield: 3.1% | Growth: 15.0% | 15 Year YOC: 25.5%

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) is the largest fast-food restaurant company in the world, with about 32,500 restaurants in 117 countries.
Yield: 3.2% | Growth: 15.0% | 15 Year YOC: 26.1%

ConocoPhillips Co. (COP) is the fourth largest integrated oil company in the world, and the second largest in the U.S.
Yield: 3.3% | Growth: 15.0% | 15 Year YOC: 26.6%

People’s United Financial Inc. (PBCT) provides a full range of banking and financial service products to individuals, corporations and municipal customers in the U.S. Northeast.
Yield: 6.0% | Growth: 11.3% | 15 Year YOC: 30.0%

Southside Bancshares Inc. (SBSI) primarily provides financial services to individuals, businesses, municipal entities, and non-profit organizations.
Yield: 3.7% | Growth: 16.6% | 15 Year YOC: 36.9%

Old Republic Intl (ORI) writes property and liability, mortgage guaranty, title and life, and disability insurance.
Yield: 5.4% | Growth: 15.0% | 15 Year YOC: 43.6%

One key component of current yield is risk. If Treasuries (risk free) were paying 7%, 8% or 9%, many income investors and a significant number of dividend growth investors would divert a portion of their portfolios to them.

You will note that most of the above stocks are yielding under 4%. It is also important to note that I do not believe that all the above stocks will achieve their 15 year YOC. In much the same way high-yielding stocks often end up cutting their dividends, many of the above stocks will end up cutting their dividend growth rate. Put another way, there is risk associated low-yield high-dividend-growth stocks. However, for the high dividend growth stocks that perform well over the next 15 years, the rewards are potentially much higher than those of a high-yield, low growth stock.

Full Disclosure: Long OMI, NUE, MCD, COP. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

10 Dividend Stocks With With A 10%+ Dividend Growth Rate *

D4L — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 07:30:13 +0000

The difference between an income investor and a dividend growth investor is time and the understanding of how compound growth works. If you are 67 years old and need income today, you will likely select a different group of stocks than an enlightened 27 year old that doesn’t necessarily need the income today. The 27 year old has the the luxury of time to grow a superior yield, while the 67 year old may be forced to assume additional risk to buy a higher current yield. Here are some of the reasons an investor might forgo current yield in hopes of future gain…

Dividend Growth Provides For Inflation

Inflation is the silent killer for many retirement portfolios. Over time, prices tend to increase. If you rely solely on a portfolio of long-term fixed income securities, you will lose purchasing power each year as inflation robs your portfolio. Dividend growth rates on traditional high-yield stocks (e.g. utilities, REITs, etc.) are often less than inflation. However, most blue-chip dividend growth stocks grow their dividends well in excess of the annual inflation rate.

Dividend Growth Often Provides For Higher Value

The combination of a good starting yield and respectable dividend growth will often provide the investor with greater long-term value when compared to alternatives with higher current yields and lower growth dividend rates. The only way to know for sure is to run the numbers using a model such as my D4L-PreScreen.xls.

Compound Dividend Growth Is Powerful

Compound interest is what occurs when interest previously earned is added to the principle and is considered when calculating future interest – i.e. earning interest on interest. Compound dividends are like compound interest on steroids. Like compound interest, dividends are being reinvested. However, these dividends are growing which provides and added boost.

Conservative View Of Dividend Growth

The dividend growth rate is a key metric in many calculations. As such, I use a conservative estimate as follows: The minimum dividend growth rate of the 1, 3, 5, 7, 10 year compound annual growth rate or 15%, if dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year periods, within the last 10 years of history.

10 Stocks With a 10%+ Dividend Growth Rate

General Dynamics Corp. (GD) | Yield: 2.5% | Growth: 10.1%
General Dynamics is the world’s fifth largest military contractor and also one of the world’s biggest makers of corporate jets. GD is a member of the S&P 500 a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1979 and has increased its dividend payments for 19 consecutive years.

Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL) | Yield: 1.9% | Growth: 10.6%
Hormel Foods Corp. company is a leading processor of branded, convenience meat products (primarily pork) for the consumer market. HRL is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1928 and has increased its dividend payments for 45 consecutive years.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) | Yield: 2.8% | Growth: 11.0%
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. is the largest retailer in North America, WMT operates a chain of discount department stores, wholesale clubs, and combination discount stores and supermarkets. WMT is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1973 and has increased its dividend payments for 36 consecutive years.

Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) | Yield: 2.9% | Growth: 12.5%
Colgate-Palmolive Company (Colgate) is a major consumer products company that markets oral, personal and household care, and pet nutrition products in more than 200 countries and territories. CL is a member of the S&P 500 and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1895 and has increased its dividend payments for 47 consecutive years.

Owens & Minor Inc. (OMI) | Yield: 2.6% | Growth: 13.2%
Owens & Minor Inc. is a leading domestic distributor of medical and surgical supplies to the acute care market, a health care supply chain management company, and a direct-to-consumer (DTC) supplier of testing and monitoring supplies for diabetes. OMI is a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1926 and has increased its dividend payments for 13 consecutive years.

ConocoPhillips (COP) | Yield: 3.3% | Growth: 13.2%
ConocoPhillips Co. is the fourth largest integrated oil company in the world. COP is a member of the S&P 500 a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1934 and has increased its dividend payments for 10 consecutive years.

Target Corp. (TGT) | Yield: 2.0% | Growth: 15.5%
Target Corp. operates about 1,500 Target and 250 SuperTarget general merchandise stores across the U.S. TGT is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1965 and has increased its dividend payments for 43 consecutive years.

Southside Bancshares Inc. (SBSI) | Yield: 3.2% | Growth: 16.6%
Southside Bancshares Inc. primarily provides financial services to individuals, businesses, municipal entities, and non-profit organizations. SBSI is a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1969 and has increased its dividend payments for 12 consecutive years.

Walgreen Co. (WAG) | Yield: 1.7% | Growth: 18.5%
Walgreen Co is the largest U.S. retail drug chain in terms of revenues, this company operates more than 8,000 drug stores throughout the U.S. and Puerto Rico. WAG is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1933 and has increased its dividend payments for 36 consecutive years.

Casey’s General Stores Inc. (CASY) | Yield: 1.4% | Growth: 19.8%
Casey’s General Stores Inc. has over 1,500 convenience stores in the Midwest, selling food, beverage, health and automotive products. CASY is a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1990 and has increased its dividend payments for 10 consecutive years.

Conclusion

If time is on your side, you should investigate if certain lower yielding stocks with a dividend growth rate fits into your long-term investment strategy. When making this evaluation, it is important to note that the sustainability of the dividend growth rate must be evaluated on a go-forward basis. Like high-yield stocks, there is increasing risk as the dividend growth rises.

Full Disclosure: Long GD, WMT, CL, OMI, COP. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

Dividend Stocks Poised To Beat Inflation *

D4L — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 07:30:11 +0000

Investing in dividend growth stocks is not about buying a current high yield, but instead building a high yield-on-cost over time. One of the criticisms I am hearing more often is, “That low yield isn’t even covering inflation.” This is a very valid concern, if true. To test this criticism, I built a model it and ran several dividend stocks through it. The results just might surprise you…

Projected Inflation

First, let’s look at inflation, specifically the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). I chose this index since it focuses on a typical market basket of goods and services consumed by all urban consumers. In the August 2010 Budget and Economic Outlook, published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), it offers a very mild outlook for inflation. The CBO is projecting the CPI-U for 2010 to be 1.6%, 1.0% in 2011, 1.7% in 2012-2014 and 2.3% 2015-2020.

Economic Growth

The mild inflation could be the result of a slow recovery. As for economic growth the CBO offered this:

In the past, many recoveries from deep recessions have been quite robust. After deferring purchases during a slump (especially for expensive goods like homes, automobiles, and capital equipment), households and businesses typically boost their spending quickly as economic prospects improve. However, international experience suggests that recoveries from recessions that were spurred by financial crises tend to be slower than average—perhaps because the losses in wealth and damage to the financial system that occur during such crises weigh on spending for a number of years. Following such a crisis, it takes time for consumers to rebuild their wealth, for financial institutions to restore their capital bases, and for nonfinancial firms to regain the confidence required to invest in new plant and equipment; all of those forces tend to restrain spending. In addition, under current law, both the waning of fiscal stimulus and the scheduled increases in taxes will temporarily subtract from growth, especially in 2011.

D4L-Inflation

With the above back-drop, I created an Excel model to compare a dividend growth stock to inflation. The model is simple to use. It has the following inputs:

Symbol: The dividend growth stock’s ticker symbol
Current Year: This year (2010)
Current Yield: The dividend growth stock’s current yield
Dividend Growth: The dividend growth stock’s estimated dividend growth rate
Inflation Rate: Estimated inflation rate

The Interpretative Analysis section calculates the net present value (NPV) of the annual differential between the dividend income investment and inflation (discounted at the inflation rate). The break-even button next to the Inflation Rate input field will calculate the inflation rate where the dividend stock investment equals inflation. Let’s run some numbers:

		Current	Dividend	Break
Company	Analysis	Yield	Growth	Even Inf.
Caseys, Inc. (CASY)	-	0.92%	15.47%	4.36%
ADM Co. (ADM)	-	1.77%	7.41%	3.57%
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)	Link	2.33%	11.01%	6.57%
General Dynamics (GD)	Link	2.68%	10.07%	6.84%
Colgate (CL)	Link	2.68%	10.07%	8.70%
Exxon Corp. (XOM)	-	2.84%	4.82%	4.39%
Coca-Cola (KO)	Link	3.01%	7.32%	5.87%
J&J (JNJ)	Link	3.52%	8.42%	7.55%
Kimberly-Clark (KMB)	Link	3.98%	6.67%	7.21%
Piedmont Nat. Gas (PNY)	Link	4.00%	3.74%	5.55%

It is interesting to note that just a little dividend growth goes a long ways. One other consideration is taxes. To run the calculations on an after tax basis, simple enter the dividend yield on an after-tax basis. For example, if the dividend yield is 4% on a pretax basis and your marginal tax rate is 30%, then enter 2.8% as the dividend yield (4% x (100%-30%)).

You can download D4L-Inflation.xls and be prepared for the next time someone tells you that dividend stock is not even covering inflation. Just ask them what is their projected inflation rate and the stocks projected dividend growth rate.

Full Disclosure: Long WMT, GD, CL, KO, JNJ, KMB. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

5 Dividend Stocks Providing Positive Feedback *

D4L — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 07:30:59 +0000

It seems that ever so many years the market turns down and someone declares the death of buy-and-hold. Some even go as far to say that Warren Buffett has lost his touch. With time on their side, the buy-and-hold investors and Mr. Buffett always seem to make a spectacular rebound. As long-term dividend investors our focus should be on acquiring fundamentally sound dividend growth stocks at a reasonable valuation and maintaining our asset allocation.

This week several companies provided their shareholders positive feedback with increased cash dividends:

Casey’s (CASY) has over 1,500 convenience stores in the Midwest, selling food, beverage, health and automotive products. September 7th the company increased its quarterly dividend 35% to $0.135/share. CASY is a Dividend Achiever and has raised its dividend for 11 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 1.26%.

R.G. Barry Corporation (DFZ) designs, purchases from third party contract manufacturers, markets and distributes comfort footwear for men, women and children. September 7th the company raised its quarterly dividend 40% to $0.07/share. The dividend is payable October 4, 2010 to common shareholders of record on September 20, 2010. The ex-dividend date is September 16, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 2.46%.

Frisch’s Restaurants (FRS) operates 91 family restaurants under the name Frisch’s Big Boy, and operates 35 Golden Corral grill buffet restaurants. September 8th the company raised its quarterly dividend 15% to $0.15/share. The dividend is payable October 8, 2010 to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 20, 2010. The ex-dividend date is September 16, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 3.03%.

Flexsteel Industries (FLXS) manufactures, imports, and markets residential, recreational vehicle, and commercial upholstered and wooden furniture products in the United States. September 9th the company increased its quarterly dividend 50% to $0.075/share. The dividend is payable October 1, 2010 to shareholders of record as of September 20, 2010. The ex-dividend date is September 16, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 2.08%.

Brady Corp (BRC) is an international manufacturer and marketer of solutions that identify and protect premises, products and people. September 9th the company raised its quarterly dividend 2.9% to $0.18/share. A quarterly dividend will be paid on October 29, 2010, to shareholders of record at the close of business on October 8, 2010. BRC is a Dividend Achiever and has raised its dividend for 25 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 2.64%.

Selecting stocks with increasing dividends is critical for an income growth strategy. The above list contains stocks that recently raised their dividends; it is not a list of recommend buys. As always, due diligence should be performed before buying or selling any stock. For a list of stocks with a long string of consecutive cash dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: No position in the aforementioned securities. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

Five Dividend Stocks Raising Their Dividends *

D4L — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 10:30:25 +0000

When it comes to selecting dividend stocks, one of the most important items to look for is consistency in raising dividends. Sure it is easy to increase dividends when the economy is booming and business is good, but to be consistent a company has to persevere and continue to increase dividends during the tough times.

Below are five companies that have recently increased their cash dividends to shareholders:

Village Super Market (VLGEA) operates a chain of 23 ShopRite supermarkets in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The company’s Board increased its quarterly cash dividend 7.5% to $0.215/share. The dividend is payable on July 23, 2009 to shareholders of record at the close of business on July 2, 2009. VLGEA has increased its dividend six consecutive years since began paying dividends in 2003. At the new rate, the stock is yielding 2.9%.

Casey’s General Store (CASY) has over 1,450 convenience stores (including franchises) in nine
midwestern states, selling food, beverage, health and automotive products. At its June meeting, the Board of Directors increased the quarterly dividend 13.3% to $0.085/share. The dividend is payable August 17th, to shareholders of record on August 3rd. This marks the fourth consecutive year CASY has increased its dividend. At the new rate, the stock is yielding 1.3%.

Medtronic (MDT) is a global medical device manufacturer has leadership positions in the pacemaker, defibrillator, orthopedic, diabetes management and other medical markets. Recently the company increased its dividend by 9% to $0.205/share. In addition, the Board authorized MDT to purchase an additional 60 million shares (5.4%) of its common stock. At the new rate, the stock is yielding 2.5%. The company is a Dividend Achiever.

John Wiley & Sons (JW.A) is a global publisher of print and electronic products, providing content and solutions to customers worldwide. The Board recently raised its quarterly cash dividend 8% to $0.14/share. It is payable on July 14, 2009 to shareholders of record on July 6, 2009. This is the 16th consecutive dividend increase. At the new rate, the stock is yielding 1.7%. JW.A is a Dividend Achiever.

Annaly Capital (NLY) is a mortgage real estate investment trust that owns and manages a portfolio of agency mortgage-backed securities and operates a fixed income asset management business. On June 18th, its Board increased its quarterly cash dividend 20% to $0.60/share. The dividend is payable July 29, 2009 to common shareholders of record on June 29, 2009. NLY had previously dropped its dividend in December 2008 to $0.50/share from $0.55/share. At the new rate, the stock is yielding 16.0%.

Though it may seem that most companies are cutting their dividends, many continue to show strength and increase their dividends. For stocks with a long string of consecutive dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: No position in the aforementioned securities. See a list of all my income holdings here.