Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. is the largest retailer in North America. The company operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wal-Mart Stores, Sam’s Club, and International.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

WMT is trading at a discount to 1.) and 3.) above. The stock is trading at a 12.1% discount to its calculated fair value of $60.72. WMT earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

WMT earned two Stars in this section for 1.) and 2.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1973 and has increased its dividend payments for 36 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

WMT earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $1,163. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as WMT has. If WMT grows its dividend at 11.0% per year, it will take 5 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.4%.

Memberships and Peers: WMT is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company’s peer group includes: Costco Wholesale (COST) with a 1.3% yield, Target Corp (TGT) with a 1.85% yield, and PriceSmart Inc (PSMT) with a 1.68% yield.

Conclusion: WMT earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks WMT as a 4 Star-Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $70.61 before WMT’s NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 36 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 1.71%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 8.4%. This dividend growth rate is below the 11.0% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. WMT has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a low risk stock.

WMT enjoys dominant positions in most markets where it competes. The company continues to gain market share aided by the economic downturn as consumers choose WMT over higher-cost competitors and take advantage of its convenience. Its unmatched scale leads to favorable terms on everything from the products it sells to store leases and distribution agreements. I plan to add to my position as my allocation allows and while the stock is trading below my buy price of $60.72. For additional information, including the stock’s dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in WMT (3.6% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.

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Industry

Have you ever noticed that stocks within an industry often have similar yields? This makes sense when you consider they often have like operations with similar processes, cost structures and margins. This is evident when you look at retailers who buy similar products, resell them in a physical location and have fairly low margins due to the intense competition. Note the yield similarity of Target Corp. (TGT) with a 1.3% yield and Costco (COST) with a 1.5% yield. Even WalMart (WMT) with their economies of scale and focus on efficiency has a yield only slightly higher at 2.4%. The same analysis could be done with The Coca-Cola Company (KO) with a 3.4% yield and Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) with a 3.1% yield.

Maturity and Growth Potential

When Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) were formed they paid no dividend. Instead they funneled all their cash back into growing the business. As they matured and growth slowed, each began to pay a very nominal dividend. Today, as they have continued to mature, their yields have continued to increase with MSFT paying 2.0% and INTC paying 3.0%.

Legal Considerations

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT), such as Realty Income Corp. (O) and HCP, Inc. (HCP), are not taxed as standalone entities. Instead, they are legally required each year to pay out a certain percentage of their profits as dividends. In effect this forces the shareholders to incur the tax as earnings are generated, leaving the company very little to fund growth. To pay for growth, REIT’s usually have to issue debt and/or equity. All of this combined usually results in REITs having a higher than average yield, for example O yields 5.8% and HCP yields 6.2%.

Risk

Risk still plays an important role in setting the yield for a company. Consider these energy companies with a similar yields: Chevron Corp. (CVX) with a 4.0% yield, Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) with a 3.0% yield and ConocoPhillips (COP) with a 4.1% yield. Then there is BP plc (BP) with a 9.0% yield. Is there any question which of these is the more risky stock to own?

The above list is not meant to be an exhaustive, but highlights some of the more common drivers of yield. When we see a yield that appears to be too good to true, we need to ask ourselves why is the yield so high, and is it sustainable?

Full Disclosure: Long CVX, JNJ, ABT, MCD, PG, KO. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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- Increasing Dividend Yield Part V: MLPs
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(Photo Credit)

Though I prefer quarterly dividends, there is something more important than frequency — dividend increases. Below are several companies satisfying their shareholders desire for more cash by increasing their dividends:

Travelers (TRV) is a leading provider of commercial property-liability and homeowners and auto insurance. April 23rd the company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.36/share. The dividend is payable June 30, 2010, to shareholders of record as of the close of business June 10, 2010. The ex-dividend date is June 8, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 2.85%.

Costco Wholesale (COST) operates about 565 membership warehouses in the U.S., Puerto Rico, Canada, the U.K., Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and Mexico. April 23rd the company raised its quarterly dividend 14% to $0.205/share. The dividend of $.205 per share is payable May 21, 2010, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 7, 2010. The ex-dividend date is May 5, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 1.39%.

Holly Energy Partners (HEP) operates refined product pipeline and terminal facilities. April 23rd the partnership raised its quarterly distribution to $0.815/unit. The distribution will be paid May 14, 2010, to unitholders of record May 4, 2010. The ex-distribution date is April 30, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 6.98%.

International Paper (IP) is a leading worldwide producer and distributor of printing papers and packaging products. On April 26th the company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.125/share. The dividend is payable June 15, 2010 to shareholders of record on May 17, 2010. The ex-dividend date is May 13, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 1.85%.

Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. (AHGP) produces and markets coal primarily to utilities and industrial users in the U.S. It offers a range of steam coal with varying sulfur and heat contents. April 26th the partnership increased its quarterly distribution 2.8% to $0.465/unit. The distribution is payable on May 20, 2010, to AHGP’s unitholders of record as of the close of trading on May 13, 2010. The ex-dividend date is May 13, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 5.49%.

Community Bank System (CBU) provides financial services in upstate New York, and in northeastern Pennsylvania as First Liberty Bank & Trust. April 26th the company raised its quarterly dividend 9.1% to $0.24/share. The dividend is payable on July 9, 2010, to shareholders of record as of June 15, 2010. The ex-dividend date is June 11, 2010. CBU is a Dividend Achiever and has paid a higher dividend for 17 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 3.89%.

Inergy Holdings (NRGP) operates a retail and wholesale propane supply, marketing and distribution business. April 26th the company increases its quarterly distribution 3.7% to $0.975/unit. The distribution will be paid on May 14, 2010, to unitholders of record as of May 7, 2010. The ex distribution date is May 5, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 5.31%.

EarthLink (ELNK) is one of the largest U.S. Internet service providers, based on paying subscribers. April 27th the company increases it quarterly dividend to $0.16/share. This increase will be reflected in the next quarterly dividend to be paid on June 28, 2010 to shareholders of record on June 14, 2010. The ex-dividend date is June 12, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 6.88%.

Williams Partners (WPZ) engages in gathering, transporting, processing, and treating natural gas, as well as fractionating and storing natural gas liquids. April 27th the company increases its quarterly distribution 3.5% to $0.66/unit. The distribution is payable on May 14, 2010, to unitholders of record at the close of business on May 7, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 6.31%.

IBM (IBM) products and services include information technology services, software, computer hardware equipment, fundamental research, and related financing. April 27th the company raised its quarterly dividend 18% to $0.65/share. The dividend is payable June 10, 2010 to stockholders of record May 10, 2010. The ex-dividend date is May 6, 2010. This is the 15th year in a row that IBM has increased its quarterly cash dividend, and 7th year in a row of double-digit percent increases. With the payment of the June 10th dividend, this Dividend Achiever will have paid consecutive quarterly dividends every year since 1916. The yield based on the new payout is 2.02%.

Sunoco Logistics Partners LP (SXL) owns and operates a group of refined product and crude oil pipelines and terminal facilities. April 27th the company increases its quarterly distribution 2.3% to $1.11/unit. The yield based on the new payout is 6.54%.

WW Grainger (GWW) is the largest global distributor of industrial and commercial supplies such as hand tools, electric motors, light bulbs and janitorial items. April 28th the company raised its quarterly dividend 17% to $0.54/share. April 28th the company raised its quarterly dividend 17% to $0.54/share. The dividend is payable on June 1 to shareholders of record on May 10. The ex-dividend date is May 6. GWW is a Dividend Aristocrat and has paid a higher dividend for 39 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 1.99%. See recent analysis.

Exxon (XOM) is the world’s largest publicly owned integrated oil company. April 28th the company raised its quarterly dividend 4.8% to $0.44/share. The dividend is payable on June 10, 2010 to shareholders of record of Common Stock at the close of business on May 13, 2010. XOM is a Dividend Aristocrat and has paid a higher dividend for 28 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 2.54%.

Chevron (CVX) is a global integrated oil company that has interests in exploration, production, refining and marketing, and petrochemicals. April 28th the company increased its quarterly dividend 5.9% to $0.72/share. The dividend is payable June 10, 2010, to holders of common stock as shown on the transfer records of the Corporation at the close of business on May 19, 2010. The ex-dividend date is May 17. The amount represents a 5.9 percent increase in the company’s quarterly dividend. CVX is a Dividend Achiever and has paid a higher dividend for 23 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 3.37%.

Sturm, Ruger & Co. (RGR) designs, manufactures, and sells firearms to domestic customers; it offers products in four industry product categories: rifles, shotguns, pistols, and revolvers. April 28th the company raised its quarterly dividend 55% to $0.093/share. The dividend will be paid on May 28, 2010 to stockholders of record as of May 14, 2010. The ex-dividend date is May 12, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 2.16%.

TransAlta Corp. (TAC) is an independent power producer and wholesale marketing company owns a portfolio of generation assets in Canada, the United States, Mexico, and Australia. April 29th the company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.29/share. The dividend is payable July 1, 2010 to shareholders of record at the close of business June 1, 2010. The ex-dividend date is May 28, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 5.59%.

Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) is the largest multi-bank holding company headquartered in Texas, has more than 80 offices in various cities in the state. April 29th the company increases its quarterly dividend 4.7% to $0.45/share. The dividend is payable June 15, 2010 to shareholders of record on June 1, 2010. The ex-dividend date is May 28, 2010. CFR is a Dividend Achiever and has paid a higher dividend for 16 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 3.02%.

Duff & Phelps (DUF) is an independent financial advisory company operates worldwide in two segments, Financial Advisory and Investment Banking. April 29th the company raised its quarterly dividend by 20% to $0.06/share. The yield based on the new payout is 1.50%.

Frequency of dividends increases is one of the most important things to consider when adopting a dividend growth investment strategy. For a list of stocks with a long string of consecutive cash dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: Long MCD, AOD, CVX, O, PG, JNJ. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

Comparing Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) December 31, 2008 13-F with its March 31, 2009 13-F, I made the following observations for Q1/2009:

• BRK didn’t add any new positions to its portfolio
• BRK didn’t fully liquidate any positions in its portfolio
• BRK added shares in seven stocks: BNSF Railway (BNI), Union Pacific (UNP), Wells Fargo (WFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Nalco Holding Company (NLC)
• BRK reduced shares in four stocks: CarMax (KMX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) and Constellation Energy Group, Inc. (CEG)

Of the stocks held in BRK’s 13-F portfolio, the following ones are either held in my income portfolio or are on my watch list of dividend stocks:

Coca Cola (KO) – Yield 3.34% – Analysis
The Coca-Cola Company is the largest manufacturer, distributor and marketer of nonalcoholic beverage concentrates and syrups in the world.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – Yield 3.55% – Analysis
Johnson & Johnson is engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field.

Kraft Foods (KFT) – Yield 4.44% – Analysis
Kraft is engaged in manufacturing and marketing packaged food products, including snacks, beverages, cheese, convenient meals and various packaged grocery products.

Lowes Companies (LOW) – Yield 1.89% – Analysis
Lowe’s Companies, Inc. is a home improvement retailer.

M&T Bank (MTB) – Yield 5.57%
M&T Bank Corporation is a bank holding company. As of December 31, 2008, the Company had two wholly owned bank subsidiaries.

Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) – Yield 3.39% – Analysis
The Procter & Gamble Company is focused on providing branded consumer goods.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.  (WMT) – Yield 2.19% – Analysis
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. operates retail stores in various formats worldwide.

In addition, Buffett continues to hold a position in several stocks that I sold over the last twelve months for either cutting or failing to raise their dividend. Those are:

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) – Yield 0.35%
Bank of America Corporation (Bank of America) is a bank holding company and a financial holding company.

General Electric (GE) – Yield 9.20%
General Electric Company is a diversified technology, media and financial services company.

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) – Yield 3.89%
The Home Depot, Inc.is a home improvement retailer selling an assortment of building materials, home improvement and lawn and garden products, and provide a number of services.

SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI) – Yield 3.04%
SunTrust Banks, Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company whose businesses provide a range of financial services to consumer and corporate clients.

U.S. Bancorp (USB) – Yield 1.04%
U.S. Bancorp operates as a financial holding company and a bank holding company. U.S. Bancorp provides a range of financial services, including lending and depository services, cash management, foreign exchange, and trust and investment management services.

It is not surprising that the most famous value investor holds several dividend stocks. Historically, stocks that pay dividends have out-performed those that don’t. When you buy dividend stocks at a discount, it’s like turbo-charging your return!

Full Disclosure: Long in JNJ, KO, MTB, PG, WMT . See a list of all my income holdings here.

Last Tuesday, IBM stood up and was counted as a leader. At a time when the ill-prepared and the fearful are cutting dividends and hoarding cash, IBM increased its quarterly dividend 10% to $0.55/share and announced a $3 billion share repurchase program. The company has increased its quarterly dividend by 175% percent since 2006 and this is the 14th consecutive increase. The dividend is payable June 10, 2009 to stockholders of record May 8, 2009.  based on the new rate, IBM is currently yielding: 2.10%

Below are many other companies joining IBM as leaders andrewarding their shareholders with higher cash dividends:

• Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) increased its qtr. dividend 2% to $0.43/share. Yield 3.54% (analysis)
• Donegal Group (DGICA) raised its qtr. dividend to $0.112/share. Yield: 3.07%
• Valmont Industries (VMI) ups its qtr. dividend 15.4% to $0.15/share, Yield: 0.95%
• Bemis (BMS) boosts qtr dividend to $0.225/share. Yield: 3.72%
• Costco Wholesale (COST) increased its qtr dividend to $0.18/share. Yield: 1.50%
• BOK Financial (BOKF) raised its qtr. dividend 6.7% to $0.24/share. Yield: 2.48%
• W.W. Grainger (GWW) ups its qtr. dividend 15% to $0.46/share. Yield: 2.22%
• Talisman Energy (TLM) boosts its semi-annual dividend 12.5% to $0.1125/share. Yield: 1.47%
• ExxonMobil (XOM) increased its qtr. dividend to $0.42/share. Yield: 2.45%
• UGI Corporation (UGI) raised its qtr dividend 4% to $0.20/share. Yield: 3.35%
• Safeway (SWY) ups qtr. dividend 21% to $0.10/share. Yield: 1.56%
• Occidental (OXY) boosts qtr. dividend 3.1% to $0.33/share. Yield: 2.23%
  

Hopefully, this is just the beginning and in the coming weeks we will continue to see more dividend increases. For more companies with a long string of consecutive dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: No position in the aforementioned securities.  See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo: Steve Woods)