Dividends Value » CRRC

When To Sell A Dividend Stock *

D4L — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 07:30:47 +0000

As a long-term buy-and-hold investor, most of my evaluation efforts are aimed at determining when to buy a stock. Sometimes it is necessary to sell a stock and we need to be equally adept at identifying those times. I have stated on numerous occasions that I have one hard and fast sell rule for my individual dividend stocks: When an individual stock held as a dividend investment lowers its dividend, immediately sell it. However, there are other times it makes sense to sell. Consider these:

Significant Price Run-up Distorting Dividend Fundamentals

When you buy a dividend stock at a depressed level it will eventually return to its norm. However, at its normal level the dividend fundamentals could be so bad that you would be better off putting the money to work somewhere else. For this evaluation, my primary indicator is the NPV MMA Differential. When this metric goes negative, it in effect is saying you are better off putting the into a money market account for the next 20 years. When this occurs I look for a way to exit the position and retrieve my original investment, leaving the portion attributable to capital appreciation. Examples of stocks that I hold with these characteristics (or close to it) are:

Dividend Freeze Leading to Poor Dividend Fundamentals

When a company fails to raise its dividend (dividend freeze), the dividend fundamentals quickly deteriorate if its yield is low. It is easier to be patient when the yield is higher and the stock is still earning its way. However, as dividend growth investors, ultimately we expect our dividends to grow: Below are several stocks that failed to raise their dividends at the expected time:

Historical Performance Is Not Indicative Of Expected Results

Sometimes historical results are indicating the stock is a good investment, but something just doesn’t seem right. In situations like this there is probably a reason for the uneasiness and it is in our best interest to understand why we feel that way. Usually we know something that is not reflected in the financials.

This recently occurred with my AFLAC Inc. (AFL) position. I had been closely watching AFL since the time it first failed to raise its dividend. For a stock with a yield as low as AFL, dividend growth is paramount for its long-term success. My model’s calculated dividend growth rate was higher than what I expected going forward, at least for the near term. Its annual dividend growth has been declining since 2008, with 2010 growth only 3.6% (considering 2 dividends at $0.28 and two at $0.30). This was the only single digit increase in the last 10 years. When considering AFL’s most recent increase, the NPV MMA differential is under-performing its target. AFL has a large exposure to hybrid bonds (particularly European banks) and exposure to European sovereign debt. This makes them more risky than many other Financial Services companies. I have been looking to reallocate a portion of my financial Financial Services holdings (currently in excess of 10%) and I considered AFL one of my weaker financial stocks, so I sold it.

Substantial Change In The Business

Sometimes the world changes and what you were selling yesterday at a premium you can’t give away today. This phenomenon has been played out since the beginning of time. Rock gathers were replace with club makers who were replaced with spear makers who were replaced with arrow makers who were replaced with musket makers who were replaced with rifle makers, and so on. We see this happening today with the print media. Companies like Courier Corporation (CRRC) that publishes, prints and sells books, and Gannett Co., Inc. (GCI) an international media company that owns USA Today have struggled recently as people have moved from print media to online. Both companies were unable to continue the string of consecutive dividend increases.

Other times a catastrophe will shake a company to it very foundation. This has been most evident with the recent oil disaster in the Gulf. BP (BP) was not prepared for a situation like it faced. As the damage claims mounted, investors lost confidence in management to stop the oil flow and began to sell off the stock. A dividend cut soon followed.

Buy-And-Hold Not Buy-And-Forget

All investors need to be vigilant and keep a close watch on their investments. There are few certainties in an uncertain world. Things change and adjustments must be made. Buy-and-hold is a successful investment strategy; buy-and-forget is a recipe for disaster.

Full Disclosure: Long MMM, EMR, GPC, ITW, PAYX, LLY, PGN, TEG. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo: sanja gjenero)

The Secret To Finding The Best Dividend Stocks *

D4L — Wed, 12 May 2010 07:30:42 +0000

Is a stock with a 3% yield and a 9% dividend growth rate better than one with a 7% yield and a 1.5% dividend growth rate? Last week we looked at yield-on-cost (YOC) and how it can be used to track the progress of a growing dividend of an individual stock. However, it is not a good metric for comparing multiple dividend stocks with each another. For this I devised a metric I call NPV MMA Differential.

Calculating A Dividend Stock’s NPV MMA Differential

The basis of this calculation is a hypothetical $1,000 investment in a stock and a Money Market Account (MMA) earning earning a 20 year average rate (I use a 20 year Treasury as a proxy). The value calculated is the net present value (NPV) of the difference between the dividend earnings of this investment and the interest income from the MMA over 20 years. Other assumptions include: 1.) dividends grow at the calculated dividend growth rate, 2.) dividends are reinvested, 3.) share price appreciation is not considered, 4.) interest income is reinvested in the MMA. The dividend growth rate used is calculated as the minimum dividend growth rate of the 1, 3, 5, 7, 10 year dividend growth rate or 15%, if dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year periods, within the last 10 years of history.

Interpreting The NPV MMA Differential

The calculation takes into account the time value of money, thus if it takes too long for the stock’s dividend yield to exceed the MMA rate, then the calculation will return a negative value. This means you are financially better off to put your money in the MMA. If the dividend stock is a better investment then the NPV MMA Diff. calculated will be positive. Like dividend yield, it is desirable to have a higher NPV MMA Diff. But also like a dividend yield, if it is too high, you need to start asking why? The NPV MMA Diff. can be used to compare two or more investments.

Comparing Various Dividend Stocks NPV MMA Differential

Like all calculations, the value of the output is directly tied to the quality of the input (garbage in, garbage out). For the sake of the illustration let us consider the calculated inputs are correct and sustainable.

Which of these would you rather purchase:

- Vector Group Ltd. (VGR) with a 9.99% yield and a 3.61% dividend growth rate
- Chevron Corp. (CVX) with a 3.68% yield and a 5.95% dividend growth rate
- McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) with a 3.23% yield and a 15.00% dividend growth rate

Based on the NPV MMA Diff. they would be ranked like this:

1. McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) | NPV MMA Diff: 8,429
2. Vector Group Ltd. (VGR) | NPV MMA Diff: 6,640
3. Chevron Corp. (CVX) | NPV MMA Diff: 780

As you can see neither yield nor dividend growth is the sole determinant of value. Below are several other companies in ascending order of their NPV MMA Diff:

General Dynamics (GD)
NPV MMA Diff: (339) | Yield: 2.16% | Growth: 2.01%

3M Company (MMM)
NPV MMA Diff: (260) | Yield: 2.47% | Growth: 2.00%

Clorox Company (CLX)
NPV MMA Diff: 171 | Yield: 3.12% | Growth: 4.35%

Consolidated Edison (ED)
NPV MMA Diff: 537 | Yield: 5.37% | Growth: 0.85%

Lowe’s (LOW) | Analysis
NPV MMA Diff: 748 | Yield: 1.38% | Growth: 15.00%

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) | Analysis
NPV MMA Diff: 890 | Yield: 3.34% | Growth: 7.32%

National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN)
NPV MMA Diff: 972 | Yield: 6.91% | Growth: 0.00%

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | Analysis
NPV MMA Diff: 1,245 | Yield: 3.33% | Growth: 8.42%

Raven Industries (RAVN) | Analysis
NPV MMA Diff: 1,855 | Yield: 1.87% | Growth: 15.00%

TC PipeLines, LP (TCLP)
NPV MMA Diff: 2,255 | Yield: 8.01% | Growth: 1.74%

And if you believe all the underlying inputs (which I don’t), the top stock on the list is:

Courier Corporation (CRRC)
NPV MMA Diff: 54,801 | Yield: 5.56% | Growth: 15.00%

As with any projection based on historical information, the analyst must determine the sustainability of the inputs going forward. Put another way, past performance is no indication of future results. I have always heard the luckiest people in the world are those who work the hardest. In the same vein, the secret to finding the best dividend stocks often involves rolling up our sleeves and doing our homework.

Full Disclosure: Long CVX, MCD, MMM, CLX, ED, KO, NNN, JNJ. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

9 Small/Mid-Cap Dividend Stocks Answering The Call *

D4L — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 10:30:57 +0000

I have set aside 15% in my asset allocation for small and mid-cap equities. Generally, smaller cap securities are more volatile, but often offer a higher rate of return over the long-term. Most of this allocation is covered by small cap mutual funds in my 401(k).

When many investors think of dividend growth stocks, large-caps like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) [Analysis], The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) [Analysis], The Coca-Cola Company (KO) [Analysis] and 3M Co. (MMM) [Analysis] come to mind first. Often small/mid-cap stocks are associated with growth stocks, and since the underlying companies are looking to grow there is little or no cash available for dividends. Not all small/mid-cap stocks fall under the growth category, many are considered value stocks and quite a few of these consistently increase their dividends.

For a stock to be included on my Stock Ideas list it must have increased its dividend for at least 10 consecutive years (10 years for Achievers, 25 years for Aristocrats and Champions). Below is a representative sample of several small/mid-cap dividend stocks included on the list, along with the number of years of consecutive dividend increases:

Genuine Parts Co. (GPC) Genuine Parts Co is a leading wholesale distributor of automotive replacement parts, industrial parts and supplies, and office products. This company has increased its dividend for 53 consecutive years and is currently yielding 4.43%. [Analysis]

The Clorox Company (CLX) is a manufacturer and marketer of consumer products. The Company markets brand names, including Clorox bleach, Armor All, STP, Fresh Step/Scoop Away, Kingsford, Hidden Valley, KC Masterpiece, Brita , Glad, etc. This company has increased its dividend for 32 consecutive years and is currently yielding 3.20%.

Integrys Energy Group, Inc. (TEG) operates as a regulated electric and natural gas utility company in the United States and Canada. It purchases, generates, and distributes electric power; and purchases and distributes natural gas. This company has increased its dividend for 51 consecutive years and is currently yielding 7.13%.

Courier Corporation (CRRC) publishes, prints and sells books. Founded in 1824, Courier has two lines of business: full-service book manufacturing and specialty publishing. This company has increased its dividend for 16 consecutive years and is currently yielding 6.34%.

Community Trust Bank Corp. (CTBI) owns and operates Community Trust Bank, Inc. of Pikeville, KY, which provides commercial banking services in Kentucky and West Virginia; and a trust company. This company has increased its dividend for 29 consecutive years and is currently yielding 5.22%. [Analysis]

HCC Insurance Holdings Inc. (HCC) is a multi-line insurer that specializes in aviation, marine, medical stop-loss, offshore energy and property and casualty insurance in the U.S. and the U.K. This company has increased its dividend for 13 consecutive years and is currently yielding 1.99%.

Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF) markets primarily property and casualty coverage; it also conducts life insurance and asset management operations. This company has increased its dividend for 49 consecutive years and is currently yielding 6.23%

Leggett & Platt Inc. (LEG) makes a broad line of bedding and furniture components and other home, office and commercial furnishings, as well as diversified products for non-furnishings markets. This company has increased its dividend for 37 consecutive years and is currently yielding 5.21%. [Analysis]

RLI Corp. (RLI) provides selected property, casualty and surety insurance. This company has increased its dividend for 35 consecutive years and is currently yielding 2.12%. [Analysis]

The above is not a buy list, but does demonstrate the availability of small/mid-cap dividend growth stocks to potentially help meet this portion of your asset allocation. Sometimes smaller companies are still run my the original founders’ or their families and there is a pride in these companies that is not always found in those run by “professional managers”.

Full Disclosure: Long JNJ, PG, KO, MMM, GPC, CLX, TEG. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

Courier Corp. (CRRC) Dividend Stock Analysis *

D4L — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 10:30:14 +0000

This article originally appeared on The DIV-Net October 26, 2009.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Courier Corp. (CRRC). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Courier Corporation publishes, prints and sells books. Founded in 1824, Courier has two lines of business: full-service book manufacturing and specialty publishing.
Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

Avg. High Yield Price
20-Year DCF Price
Avg. P/E Price
Graham Number

CRRC is trading at a discount to 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. The stock is trading at a 40.2% discount to its calculated fair value of $25.24. CRRC earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

Free Cash Flow Payout
Debt To Total Capital
Key Metrics
Dividend Growth Rate
Years of Div. Growth
Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

CRRC earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years and it earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. The stock earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15% means that dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year period over the last 10 years (1999-2002, 2000-2003, 2001-2004, etc.) I consider this a key metric since dividends will double every 5 years if they grow by 15%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1950 and has increased its dividend payments for 16 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

NPV MMA Diff.
Years to > MMA

CRRC earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $56,158. This amount is in excess of the $1,900 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as CRRC has. The stock’s current yield of 5.57% exceeds the 3.9% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Other: CRRC is a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.

Conclusion: CRRC earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks CRRC as a 5 Star-Strong Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $45.05 before CRRC’s NPV MMA Differential increased to the $1,900 that I like to see for a stock with 16 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 1.86%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,900 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 4.7%. This dividend growth rate is significantly less than the 15.0% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. CRRC has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a low risk stock.

In 2008, CRRC’s EPS was a loss of $0.03/share. For the trailing twelve months the loss has expanded to $0.17/share. Although the stock is trading well below my buy price of $25.24, concerns about is current business prevents me buying. For additional information, including the stock’s dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in CRRC (0.0% of my Income Portfolio). What are your thoughts on CRRC?

Vornado Realty (VNO) Raises Qtr. Dividend 5.3% and Others *

D4L — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 11:30:00 +0000

Sometimes a cash rich company will declare a special one-time dividend to eliminate surplus cash. These special dividends are generally ignored when evaluating a company’s dividend growth performance. An example, of this would be Microsoft’s (MSFT) special $3.00/share dividend in 2005. Most analysts in-the-know exclude the $3.00/share special dividend use the $0.32/share regular dividend when calculating a dividend growth rate for Microsoft.

Special dividends are nice, but the most special dividend is one that increases each year. Here are several companies that recently raised their cash dividends:

Utah Medical Products (UTMD) Ups Qtr. Dividend by 4.5% to $0.23/Share (3.55%)
Home Properties (HME) Raises Qtr. Dividend 1.5% to $0.67/Share (6.53%)
Vornado Realty (VNO) Raises Qtr. Dividend 5.3% $0.95/Share (5.06%)
Aqua America (WTR) Boosts Qtr. Dividiend 8% to $0.135/Share (2.99%)
Royal Gold (RGLD) Raises Qtr. Dividend 14% to $0.08/Share (0.89%)
Aaron Rents (RNT) Increases Qtr. Dividend 6.3% to $0.017/Share (0.28%)
Courier Corp. (CRRC) Boosts Qtr. Dividend 5% to $0.21/Share (5.04%)

After running these companies through my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, VNO with a NPV of MMA Differential of $8,728 and CRRC with a NPV of MMA Differential of $39,552 justifies a more complete evaluation. None of the others achieved the necessary NPV of MMA Differential to justify a full evaluation.

Disclosure: No position in any of the aforementioned stocks.

(Photo: Steve Woods)

Courier Corp. (CRRC)

D4L — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 06:00:32 +0000

Description: Courier Corporation publishes, prints and sells books. Founded in 1824, Courier has two lines of business: full-service book manufacturing and specialty publishing.

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