Dividends Received

Total dividends received during the month were $350.13, consisting of:

• $96.32 AT&T, Inc. (T)
• $42.40 Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF)
• $ 9.43 Nucor Corporation (NUE)
• $54.56 Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
• $33.92 Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL)
• $36.65 Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)
• $76.85 CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL)

Securities Purchased

The following securities were purchased during the month:

• 32 Shares Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF) providing $51.20 in annual dividend income
• 106 Shares CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL) providing $307.40 in annual dividend income

Annualized Dividend Income

Including the above purchases, my annual PCP dividend income is now $3,714.41 at the current dividend rates. This is up $367.82 from last month’s $3,346.59 amount. The PCP has never experienced a monthly decline in annualized dividend income.

Portfolio Returns

• Month: 1.53%
• Year-to-date: 0.83%
• Life-to-date: 14.85% (annualized)

My PCP holdings are always available by selecting the Holdings option from the menu in the header. The next PCP update will be mid-April.

Full Disclosure: Long all the aforementioned securities. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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(Photo: Arcelia Vanasse)

Evaluate High Yield Stocks Carefully

When a stock carries a high yield, there is an underlying reason. Here are some questions to consider to help you understand the stock:

- Is the high yield a result of a sudden drop in price?
- Is the high yield above the industry average?
- Is the high yield above the stocks average?
- Is the high yield a result of a widespread economic downturn?
- Is the high yield a result of a company specific problem?

Be Honest In Your Evaluation

They say statistics can be used to prove anything. In the same vein, if you are determined to buy a stock, an analysis can be constructed to support the position. Instead of trying to find a reason to buy the stock, look for all the reasons NOT to buy the stock. Then weigh the positives against the negatives. Does the stock still look as appealing?

Start With List of Higher Quality Stocks

If you are looking for high yield, the temptation is to use a stock screen to search for yield and apply it to the entire universe of stocks. As this screen demonstrates, yield is easy to find. Add in growth and sustainability, then the list will dramatically shrink. Currently, I track 198 dividend growth stocks. The list is made up of Dividend Aristocrats, Achievers, Champions and few other dividend stocks for good measure. Below is a list of the stocks from my database yielding more than 5% and with 15 more years of consecutive dividend growth:

Investors Real Estate Trust (IRET)
Yield: 7.7% | Years of Growth: 36
The REIT engages engages in the ownership and operation of income-producing real estate properties in the United States.

CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL)
Yield: 6.9% | Years of Growth: 37
CTL acquired larger telecom peer Embarq in a stock deal in July 2009. Combined, the company provides voice service to 6.7 million customers and Internet service to 2.4 million customers in rural towns as well as larger cities such as Las Vegas.

Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT)
Yield: 6.7% | Years of Growth: 24
UHT, a real estate investment trust (REIT), invests in healthcare and human service related facilities.

National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN)
Yield: 6.1% | Years of Growth: 19
This REIT invests in high-quality, freestanding retail properties subject to long-term net leases with major retail tenants.

AT&T Inc. (T)
Yield: 5.9% | Years of Growth: 27
AT&T Inc. provides telephone and broadband service and holds full ownership of AT&T Mobility (formerly Cingular Wireless). AT&T Corp. was acquired in late 2005 and BellSouth in late 2006.

Buckeye Partners LP (BPL)
Yield: 5.7% | Years of Growth: 15
BLP is one of the largest independent U.S. pipeline common carriers of refined petroleum products, with over 5,400 miles of pipeline.

Mercury General Corp. (MCY)
Yield: 5.6% | Years of Growth: 23
Mercury General Corp. is an insurance holding company, operating primarily in California, writes a full line of automobile coverage for all classifications of risk.

Old Republic International (ORI)
Yield: 5.4% | Years of Growth: 29
The company writes property and liability, mortgage guaranty, title and life, and disability insurance.

Vectren Corporation (VVC)
Yield: 5.2% | Years of Growth: 51
Vectren Corp. delivers gas and/or electricity to more than one million utility customers in Indiana and Ohio, and offers other energy related products and services.

Realty Income Corp. (O)
Yield: 5.1% | Years of Growth: 16
O is a real estate investment trust that owns a diversified portfolio of 2,339 retail properties as of Dec. 31, 2009.

The above yields aren’t nearly as eye-popping as those from the screen. You will notice the above list is heavy in REITs (interest rate risk), telecommunications (technology risk), financials (equity and interest rate risks), along with MLPs and utilities (slow growth). Ultimately, we want to determine if the yield is sustainable. If we go looking for high yield, we will find it, but it may not be what we really want.

Full Disclosure: Long CTL, UHT, NNN, T, O. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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(Photo: Gravity X9)

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of AT&T Inc. (T). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: AT&T Inc. provides telephone and broadband service and holds full ownership of AT&T Mobility (formerly Cingular Wireless). AT&T Corp. was acquired in late 2005 and BellSouth in late 2006.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

T is trading at a discount to only 3.) above. Since T’s tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. The stock is trading at a 7.2% premium to its calculated fair value of $26.52. T did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

T earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. T earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1984 and has increased its dividend payments for 27 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

T earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $1,224. This amount is in excess of the $800 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as T has. The stock’s current yield of 5.91% exceeds the 3.9% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Memberships and Peers: T is a member of the S&P 500 and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company’s peer group includes: CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL) with a 6.5% yield, Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q) with a 4.3% yield and Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) with a 5.4% yield.

Conclusion: T did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks T as a 3 Star-Hold.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $32.81 before T’s NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $800 minimum that I look for in a stock with 27 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 5.12%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $800 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 0.9%. This dividend growth rate is below the 2.9% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. T has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a low risk stock.

In spite of a poor economy, T has performed well over the past year. The company should continue to see near-term gains in consumer wireless. Declines in landlines will continue to pressure T, but gains in consumer wireless and broadband should help to offset these. The company has a strong balance sheet and good free cash flow, and it enjoys brand loyalty and long-term customer relationships. I will continue to strategically increase my position in T when it is trading below my buy price of $26.52 and as my allocation allows. For additional information, including the stock’s dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in T (4.1% of my Income Portfolio). I also held a position in CTL.  See a list of all my income holdings here.

Related Articles:

- Nucor Corporation (NUE) Dividend Stock Analysis
- AFLAC Incorporated (AFL) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF) Dividend Stock Analysis
- McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) Dividend Stock Analysis
- More Stock Analysis

Here are some eye-opening statistics from saperston.com:

The latest census figures indicate that only one in every ten Americans today is financially prepared to retire when they reach age 65. Here are a few other facts on retirement gathered from a variety of sources.

* Forty-seven percent of U.S. households are not covered by either a defined benefit or defined contribution plan (The WEFA Group). Twenty-five percent of employees who qualify for 401(k) plans do not contribute to them (an estimate from Buck Consultants).

* At the end of WWII, there were 42 workers paying into Social Security for each person receiving benefits. Today, barely three people contribute for each recipient. Projections are that by 2030, when most baby boomers will have retired, just two working people will contribute for each person receiving benefits (Social Security Administration, Trust Funds Report, 1992).

* Social Security benefits will replace only 16% of the income of married couples earning $50,000 to $100,000 and only 9.5% of the income of married couples earning $100,000 and only 9.5% of the income of married couples earning $100,000-plus (Office of Research and Economic Analysis, Pension and Welfare Administration).

* Sixty-nine percent of American adults aged 25 to 44 expect to retire in the “traditional” sense of spending retirement in leisure. But reality hits home as they near retirement-63% of 45- to 54-year-olds expect a retirement of leisure, and only 49% of those 55 or older say the same (Aetna Life Insurance and Annuity Co.).

* Working people tend to think their retirement lifestyle will be better than their current lifestyle, but retirees report their standard of living has declined. Example: Twenty-six percent of workers say they are “just making ends meet,” but only 16% think they will live this way in retirement. Of retirees, 20% are “just making ends meet,” while 16% describe their pre-retirement lifestyle this way (Employee Benefit Research Institute).

* A Baby Boom Retirement Savings Index, published each year by Merrill Lynch, shows that as of November ’94, baby boomers were saving only 38.2% of what they will need to maintain growth-adjusted living standards in retirement. The index is basically unchanged in the three years the index has been published (Merrill Lynch Strategic Planning).

It doesn’t have be this way. A little knowledge and planning will get you on the road to financial security. Often the first question is ‘what will I make in retirement if I start saving today?’ This can be difficult to answer given all the uncertainties in the future. However, I have made it easy for you by setting up a Google Documents Retirement Calculator Spreadsheet that can be used to model your projected retirement income from dividend stocks. Please do NOT edit the spreadsheet, only enter values in the yellow cells and leave the calculator usable for the next person. For those with access to Excel or Open Office, you can download the spreadsheet here.

The spreadsheet is really easy to use. It has three relevant tabs: 1.) Input, 2.) Results and 3.) Details. Let’s work through a simple example. On the input tab enter:

Current Age: 20
Retirement Age: 65

Income Stocks Current Value: 5000
Income Stocks Cost Basis: 4000 (What you paid for the stocks)
Income Stocks Annual Dividend Income: 225
Annual Contribution: 1200 (or $100 per month)

Dividend Growth Rate: 6%
Contribution Growth Rate: 4% (e.g. your annual raise from your employer)
Inflation Rate: 3% (important, but often overlooked)

Enter this in then go to the Results Tab. Here you will see what things will look like at retirement if all your assumptions are correct. In this case:

In 45 years when you retire at age 65:

- Your portfolio’s market value will be: $2,334,233
- Your portfolio’s cost basis will be: $1,061,365

- Your portfolio’s current yield will be: 4.50%
- Your portfolio’s yield-on-cost will be: 9.90%

- Your portfolio’s annual income will be: $105,040
- The above income In today’s dollars will be: $27,777

The 4.5% yield may seem high, but it is an average yield. Consider the following basket of stocks that would give you about a 4.5% yield and 6% dividend growth rate:

A $2 million dollar portfolio paying me $105 thousand a year sounds pretty good, but look at the last line. Could you live on $27,777 today? With 3% annual inflation that $105 thousand in 45 years has the same purchasing power as $27 thousand dollars today. Ouch!

It sounds bad but the reality is that if you know this is coming you can plan for it. After the kids are out of college and your house is paid for you will have a lot more disposable income to put toward retirement. The problem is that many people don’t realize they have a problem and that disposable income goes toward European trips, vacation homes, bass boats, et. al. Also, there will likely be other retirement income sources, such as a pension, 401(k), social security, etc.

Remember, everyone has a retirement plan – some have a thoughtful roadmap that they are following, while the others, by default, are planning to fail. Which group are you in?

Full Disclosure: Long ABT, CL, CTL, HGIC, JNJ, LEG, PG, T, UHT. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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(Photo: Steve Woods)

Consider the following table:

The first column is the initial yield of the stock. The second column is the dividend growth rate over the period. The final 3 columns are the yields on cost (YOC) after the 5th, 10th and 20th years.  After 10 years, the YOC has either doubled (initial yields of 1%-4%), nearly doubled (initial yield of 5%) of exceeded 10% (initial yields of 6%-9%). After 20 years all the YOCs exceeded 10% except the 1% initial yield. Note that the sum of each initial yield and growth rate equals 12%, which is a nice rule of thumb to look for.

The following dividend stocks have a current yield + growth rate between 10%-12%:

There is no hard and fast rule to what initial yield + growth rate should equal. To be more conservative you could limit your selection criteria to less than 10%. This of course will lower the future YOC, but highlight stocks that should have a greater chance of performing. As always, a careful evaluation should be performed before buying or selling any stock.

Full Disclosure: Long ABT, JNJ, HGIC, KMB, INTC, CTL, PG, KO. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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(Photo Credit)

Start With a High-Quality List of Stocks

If you are looking for a higher-quality dividend growth stock, you have to go where they can be found. For me this is my Stock Ideas page. It consists of:

S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats: is designed to measure the performance of S&P 500 index constituents that have followed a policy of consistently increasing dividends every year for at least 25 consecutive years. These stocks are the best of the best – the blue blood stocks.

Broad Dividend Achievers: is comprised of select US companies with at least ten consecutive years of increasing regular dividends. US companies must be listed on the NYSE, AMEX or NASDAQ. US Companies must have a minimum average daily cash volume of US$500,000 per day for the November and December prior to each Annual Reconstitution Date.

U.S. Dividend Champions: includes companies that had paid higher dividends for at least 25 consecutive years. The list includes some smaller companies not found on the other lists. This list is maintained by The Drip Investing Resource Center and is available on their website in an Excel spreadsheet.

Look For Sustainability

High-yield isn’t free. There is usually a reason one stock’s yield is higher than another and it is normally tied to risk. With all things being equal, the income investor would always select the higher yield stock, but all things are not equal. It is our job to identify what is driving a stocks yield up and determine if we are willing to accept the additional risk. When making this decision some of the things I consider are free cash flow, debt level, business model, among others.

Higher-Yielding Stocks To Consider

Putting it all together, I have identified 11 stocks that yield at least 5% and have grown their dividends for at least 5 years. They are:

Leggett & Platt, Inc. (LEG) makes a broad line of bedding and furniture components and other home, office and commercial furnishings, as well as diversified products for non-furnishings markets.
- 5.16% Yield
- 36.76% Debt To Total Capital
- 57.89% FCF Payout
- 38 Years of Dividend Growth

Urstadt Biddle Properties (UBA) is a real estate investment trust that acquires, owns and manages commercial real estate properties primarily in the northeastern United States.
- 5.17% Yield
- 30.87% Debt To Total Capital
- 58.27% FCF Payout
- 16 Years of Dividend Growth

Hudson City Bancorp Inc. (HCBK) operates over 100 branches in the New York metropolitan area. It caters to high median household income counties and focuses on jumbo mortgage loan funding, largely through time deposits.
- 5.26% Yield
- 72.57% Debt To Total Capital
- 52.23% FCF Payout
- 10 Years of Dividend Growth

Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF) markets primarily property and casualty coverage. It also conducts life insurance and asset management operations.
- 5.31% Yield
- 15.05% Debt To Total Capital
- 46.87% FCF Payout
- 50 Years of Dividend Growth

PP&L Corporation (PPL) is a holding company for PPL Utilities and a utility in the U.K.
- 5.53% Yield
- 37.55% Debt To Total Capital
- 99.92% FCF Payout
- 9 Years of Dividend Growth

National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN) invests in high-quality, freestanding retail properties subject to long-term net leases with major retail tenants.
- 5.74% Yield
- 1.92% Debt To Total Capital
- 82.18% FCF Payout
- 19 Years of Dividend Growth

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) offers wireline, wireless and broadband services primarily in the northeastern United States. It acquired MCI Inc in 2006 and has since sold or spun off non-core assets. Alltel was acquired in early 2009.
- 5.94% Yield
- 38.59% Debt To Total Capital
- 31.49% FCF Payout
- 6 Years of Dividend Growth

AT&T Inc. (T) provides telephone and broadband service and holds full ownership of AT&T Mobility (formerly Cingular Wireless). AT&T Corp. was acquired in late 2005 and BellSouth in late 2006.
- 6.02% Yield
- 41.67% Debt To Total Capital
- 61.14% FCF Payout
- 27 Years of Dividend Growth

Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) markets propane gas and other refined fuels to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers.
- 6.08% Yield
- 43.49% Debt To Total Capital
- 88.83% FCF Payout
- 11 Years of Dividend Growth

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (KMP) is one of the largest pipeline master limited partnerships (MLPs) in the U.S.
- 6.14% Yield
- 63.92% Debt To Total Capital
- 76.11% FCF Payout
- 14 Years of Dividend Growth

CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL) acquired larger telecom peer Embarq in a stock deal in July 2009. Combined, the company provides voice service to 6.7 million customers and Internet service to 2.4 million customers in rural towns as well as larger cities such as Las Vegas.
- 6.74% Yield
- 44.56% Debt To Total Capital
- 75.39% FCF Payout
- 37 Years of Dividend Growth

As note earlier, yield comes with a cost. Each of the above stocks carries some level of additional risk higher than the average Aristocrat, Achiever or Champion. Ideally, we will start building our income portfolios years before we need the income, but if that is not possible, diversifying and focusing on higher quality stocks should help reduce our overall portfolio risk.

Full Disclosure: Long LEG, NNN, CTL, T, CINF. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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(Photo Credit)

It is important to note that dividends paid are not factored in the Total Gain % calculation. Therefore, the total return is actually higher than the numbers reported. The holding periods differ for each, so I have noted the purchase dates.

6. Realty Income Corp. (O) – Yield: 5.4% | Total Gain: 24.91%
Purchases: 5/2006, 11/2006, 12/2006, 2/2007, 6/2007
Realty Income Corporation engages in the acquisition and ownership of commercial retail real estate properties in United States.

5. Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) – Yield: 1.7% | Total Gain: 26.14%
Purchases: 11/2007, 7/2008
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) operates Canada’s largest railroad, linking customers in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico through approximately 20,400 miles of track.

4. Integrys Energy Group, Inc. (TEG) – Yield: 5.7% | Total Gain: 26.22%
Purchases: 11/2008, 2/2009
Integrys Energy Group, Inc., serves about 485,000 regulated electric and 1,674,000 regulated gas customers. The company also operates an unregulated retail marketing business.

3. CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL) – Yield: 8.1% | Total Gain: 27.87%
Purchases: 11/2008, 1/2009, 5/2009
CenturyLink, Inc. acquired larger telecom peer Embarq in a stock deal in July 2009. Combined, the company provides voice service to 7 million customers and Internet service to 2 million customers in both rural towns and larger cities, like Las Vegas.

2. Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) – Yield: 2.8% | Total Gain: 35.87%
Purchases: 7/2009, 10/2009
Emerson Electric Co. designs and supplies product technology and delivers engineering services and solutions to a wide range of industrial, commercial and consumer markets around the world.

1. 3M Co. (MMM) – Yield: 2.5% | Total Gain: 73.72%
Purchases: 3/2009
3M Co. is a diversified technology company with a presence in various businesses, including industrial & transportation, healthcare, display & graphics, consumer & office, safety, security & protection services, and electro and communications.

Each of these gains were a direct result of applying a value approach to dividend investing by taking advantage of opportunities when the stock is trading well below its fair value. A dividend growth and value strategy are well aligned often provide the conservative investors with a double benefit. Consider the MMM case:

I purchased MMM near its low in March 2009 at $48.88. At the time I calculated MMM’s Mid-2 fair value to be $84.06 and saw no fundamental reason for the stock to be trading so low. Trading at 41% of its fair value, MMM had tremendous potential for capital gain. However, I don’t purchase stocks for my income portfolio based on capital gain potential. Fortunately, the same forces providing capital gain opportunities were at work on the income side. The low price produced an eye-popping 4.25% yield on the day the stock was purchased. This was for a stock that had only yielded in the mid 2% range, on average, over the prior 10 years.

In the interest of full disclosure, I think it only fair to also mention the stocks at the other end of the spectrum. Again there were several surprises here also:

6. Harleysville Group Inc. (HGIC) – Yield: 4.6% | Total Loss: (3.39%)
Purchases: 1/2010
Harleysville Group Inc. is a regional holding company for property and casualty insurance companies that operates in 32 states, primarily in the eastern half of the U.S.

5. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) – Yield: 5.4% | Total Loss: (3.89%)
Purchases: 10/2008, 1/2009
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures and sells prescription drugs that offers a wide range of treatments for neurological disorders, diabetes, cancer, and other conditions. The company also sells animal health products.

4. Nucor Corporation (NUE) – Yield: 3.7% | Total Loss: (4.16%)
Purchases: 10/2008, 7/2009, 11/2009
Nucor Corporation is engaged in the manufacture and sale of steel and steel products. As the largest minimill steelmaker in the U.S., Nucor has one of the most diverse product lines of any steelmaker in the Americas.

3. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – Yield: 3.7% | Total Loss: (5.91%)
Purchases: 2/2008, 4/2008, 6/2009, 12/2009
Johnson & Johnson engages in the manufacture and sale of various products in the health care field worldwide.

2. Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) – Yield: 2.8% | Total Loss: (8.54%)
Purchases: 5/2010
Colgate-Palmolive Company (Colgate) is a consumer products company, whose products are marketed throughout the world. Colgate’s Oral Care products include toothpaste, toothbrushes, oral rinses, dental floss and pharmaceutical products.

1. Paychex Inc. (PAYX) – Yield: 5.0% | Total Loss: (34.43%)
Purchases: 11/2007, 1/2008,
Paychex Inc. provides payroll accounting services to small- and medium-sized concerns throughout the U.S.

As noted above, Total Loss % is only measuring capital loss. With the exception of PAYX, the other stocks are well positioned for quick turnaround. LLY and NUE have a positive return when dividends are factored in. HGIC and JNJ have small negative returns as a result of the more recent purchases. CL’s negative return is also result of its recent purchase. Having a portfolio where your bottom stocks’ performance isn’t really that bad, is one of the things I love about dividend stock investing.

Full Disclosure: Long O, CNI, TEG, CTL, EMR, MMM, HGIC, LLY, NUE, JNJ, CL, PAYX. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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(Photo Credit)

Revenue Growth

The top line drives the bottom line. You can only cut costs so far, for a business to grow and thrive it must find ways to grow sales. This can be done through acquisitions, expanding markets, developing new production or entering a new line of business. For a company to sustain a growing dividend over the long-term, it must find ways to continuously grow its business. For some companies it easier and less risky to cut costs and many will stop there.

Earnings Growth

Many companies have learned the hard way that growth for the sake of growth is not always a good thing. If growth is not managed effectively and efficiently, it will be detrimental to long-term viability of the business. Management must ensure growth projects are monitored, controlled and well-run to ensure a profit is generated. Many great ideas have failed as a result of poor execution. Sometimes competitors will watch and correct the execution problems and turn your failed growth idea into their success.

Cash Flow Growth

Revenue and earnings growth are good, but ultimately they must convert to increased cash flow to provide the means for sustained dividend growth. Having the cash on hand is not enough. There must be a commitment on management’s part to grow the dividend. Ideally, this commitment will eventually grow into a culture of dividend growth that the company takes great pride in.

Business Outlook

One of the most difficult things to judge are the future prospects of a company. Certain questions have to be answered. Is the company in a declining industry? Will it be able to reinvent itself in a way that will allow it to sustain growth? What external force could radically change the prospects of the company? These same questions are being asked by the company’s board, and they are equally hard for management to answer even with full access to insider information.

Below are ten companies with an average 10-year free cash flow growth rate exceeding their average 10-year dividend growth rate:

		Current	Average 10-yr Growth Rates
Company	Analysis	Yield	Dividend	Revenue	FCF
Abbott Labs (ABT)	Link	3.40%	9.01%	9.02%	14.38%
Becton, Dickinson (BDX)	Link	2.06%	15.22%	7.74%	31.25%
Cardinal Health (CAH)	Link	2.18%	25.90%	15.96%	138.39%
Colgate (CL)	Link	2.65%	11.42%	5.43%	15.42%
CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL)	-	7.97%	61.07%	13.92%	73.94%
J&J (JNJ)	Link	3.52%	13.52%	9.51%	14.99%
Procter & Gamble (PG)	Link	3.00%	11.16%	7.84%	20.92%
RPM International (RPM)	Link	4.40%	5.45%	7.25%	58.62%
AT&T, Inc. (T)	Link	6.33%	5.47%	12.51%	29.50%
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)	Link	2.34%	18.93%	9.57%	33.71%

It is important to note that only three of the above stocks (ABT, RPM and T) have revenue growth in excess of dividend growth. Needless, to say before buying you must consider the future prospects for each company and determine if the growth rates are sustainable in the future. As with yield, dividend growth carries its own risk. If the rate is too high, the company will have a hard time maintaining it going forward. If the rate is too low, it will not keep up with inflation and the shareholder will lose purchasing power.

Full Disclosure: Long ABT, CL, CTL, JNJ, PG, T, WMT. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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(Photo Credit)

One concern is how will Social Security, pensions and other retirement vehicles withstand the strain. The 2008 market crash has added concern to the viability of these plans. In a New York Times article, “The Unloved Annuity Gets a Hug From Obama“, income annuities are what the administration is promoting to alleviate the pending problem, but is this really a workable solution?

What are income annuities?

The New York Times article describes annuities  as:

“At its simplest, which is how the White House seems to want to keep it, an annuity is something you buy with a large pile of cash in exchange for a monthly check for the rest of your life.”

What are the problems with income annuities?

Charlie Farrell in “Why Annuities Won’t Fix The Retirement Problem“, described the following problems with income annuities:

I. Cash Out Is Determined By Cash In
The income an annuity will produce is directly related to the amount of money you put into the annuity. So if you don’t have much money saved for retirement, you won’t get much of an income stream from an annuity. And most people don’t have much money saved for retirement.

II. Payment Rates Aren’t High
At today’s interest rates, you’ll get about $5.85 of income per year for every $100 you contribute to the annuity (based on a recent quote from a highly-rated insurer). And this $5.85 would be paid to you and your spouse for as long as you both live. That’s basically a 5.85% payout on your savings in retirement.

III. No Provision For Inflation
Annuity payments don’t increase and are fixed for life. So if inflation runs at 3% a year (the average for the last 80 years), your retirement income will be cut by about 45% by the time you’re 85. Meaning that the $5,850 of income will buy you about $3,220 of stuff in today’s dollars, and the $58,500 will buy you about $32,200. You can buy an inflation-adjusted annuity, but when you do that, your initial payout goes down to somewhere around 4%.

IV. Investment Risk
With an annuity, you lose access to your money. Essentially, you gave your money to the insurance company to purchase the annuity. It’s theirs to keep forever, and your income is dependent on the insurance executives running a sound insurance company for the next 30 or so years. That’s always hard to predict and carries it’s own risks.

Dividend Stocks – A Viable Alternative

Instead of turning over your life-savings to an insurance company (that could be the next AIG), why not build a diversified portfolio of dividend growth stocks? This works best if you have time before retirement. The initial rate may not be as high as the 5.85% quoted above, but careful stock selection will allow growth well in excess of inflation. Unlike depending on a single insurance company, a diversified portfolio of at least 30 stocks will greatly reduce the risk. Below are some good dividend growth stocks that will provide a yield-on-cost greater than 5.85% in ten years, based on the listed assumptions:

		Current	Dividend	10-Year
Company	Analysis	Yield	Growth	YOC
Sysco Corp. (SYY)	Link	3.16%	6.52%	5.95%
Piedmont Nat. Gas (PNY)	Link	4.17%	3.74%	6.02%
Clorox Company (CLX)	-	3.24%	6.83%	6.27%
Intel Corporation (INTC)	-	3.07%	7.44%	6.29%
Coca-Cola (KO)	Link	3.19%	7.32%	6.47%
Chevron Corp. (CVX)	Link	3.73%	5.95%	6.64%
General Dynamics (GD)	Link	2.68%	10.07%	6.99%
Procter & Gamble (PG)	Link	2.95%	9.87%	7.55%
Universal Health (UHT)	-	7.26%	1.47%	8.40%
CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL)	-	8.14%	3.57%	11.56%

Social Security was never intended as a retirement plan, but as a supplement to savings. The key to a successful retirement is not to rely on any single income stream, but to build multiple income streams. These would include Social Security, 401(k), IRA (Roth and/or Traditional), pension plan, bonds, and of course, good dividend growth stocks. There is a reason the insurance companies are excited that Obama is focusing on annuities, and it isn’t because they care about you.

Full Disclosure: Long SYY, CLX, INTC, KO, CVX, PG, CTL. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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(Photo: sanja gjenero)

This week several companies took a step toward doubling their shareholders yield-on-cost by increasing their cash dividends:

PG&E Corp. (PCG) is the parent of Pacific Gas & Electric Co. On February 19th the company increased its quarterly dividend to to $0.455/share. The yield based on the new payout is 4.33%.

Abbott (ABT) is a leading maker of drugs, nutritional products, diabetes monitoring devices, and diagnostics. February 19th the company raised its quarterly dividend 10% to $0.44/share. The cash dividend is payable May 15, 2010, to shareholders of record at the close of business on April 15, 2010. The ex-dividend date is April 13. ABT is a Dividend Aristocrat and has raised its dividend for 38 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 3.24%. [Analysis]

ITT Corp (ITT) is a diversified industrial manufacturer of advanced technology products. February 22nd the company raised its quarterly dividend 18% to $0.25/share. The dividend is payable on April 1, 2010 to shareholders of record on March 3, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 1. The dividend yield is 1.95% on the new payout.

Home Depot (HD) operates a chain of over 2,200 retail warehouse-type stores, selling a wide variety of home improvement products. February 23rd the company increased its quarterly dividend 5% to 23.625/share. The dividend is payable on March 25, 2010, to shareholders of record on the close of business on March 11, 2010. The dividend yield is 3.01% on the new payout.

Kimberly-Clark (KMB) is a leading consumer products company’s global tissue, personal care and health care brands include Huggies, Pull-Ups, Kotex, Depend, Kleenex and Scott. February 23rd the company raised its quarterly dividend 10% to $0.66/share. The dividend is payable on April 5, 2010, to stockholders of record on March 5, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 3, 2010. KMB is a Dividend Aristocrat and has raised its dividend for 38 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 4.38%. [Analysis]

MOCON (MOCO) makes equipment to test packages and packaging material, and performs consulting and analytical services. February 24th the company raised its quarterly dividend 6% to $0.095/share. The dividend is payable on May 21, 2010, to shareholders of record on May 7, 2010. The ex-dividend date is May 5, 2010. Yield on the dividend is 3.74%.

Digital Realty Trust (DLR) operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT). February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.48/share. The dividend will be paid on March 31, 2010, to common stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 15, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 11, 2010. Yield on the dividend is 3.76%.

Altria Group (MO) is the largest U.S. cigarette producer. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend 3% to $0.35/share. The dividend is payable on April 9, 2010, to stockholders of record as of March 15, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 11, 2010. MO is a Dividend Achiever and has raised its dividend for 14 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 6.91%.

Westar Energy (WR) provides electric generation, transmission and distribution services to apx. 674,000 customers in Kansas as of December 31, 2007. February 24th the company raised its quarterly dividend 3.3% to $0.31/share. The dividend is payable April 1, 2010 to shareholders of record on March 9, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 5. The yield based on the new payout is 5.62%.

Chubb (CB) is one of the largest U.S. property-casualty insurers, Chubb has carved out a number of niches, including high-end personal lines and specialty liability lines coverage. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend 5.7% to $0.37/share. The dividend is payable on April 6 to shareholders of record on March 19. The ex-dividend date is March 17. CB is a Dividend Aristocrat and has raised its dividend for 45 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 2.90%. [Analysis]

Weingarten Realty Investors (WRI) is a REIT focusing on shopping centers and industrial properties. February 24th the company increased its dividend. The yield based on the new payout is 4.92%.

McGrath Rentcorp (MGRC) rents and sells modular buildings and electronic test and measurement equipment; and manufactures and sells portable classrooms. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.225/share. The dividend is payable on April 30, 2010, to all shareholders of record on April 16, 2010. The ex-dividend date is April 14, 2010. MGRC is a Dividend Achiever and has raised its dividend for 18 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 3.69%.

Essex Property Trust (ESS) is a real estate investment trust primarily owns and operates multi-family properties in California and the Pacific Northwest. February 24th the company raised its quarterly dividend to $1.0325/share. The dividend is payable on April 15, 2010 to shareholders of record as of March 31, 2010, will be $1.0325 per share. The ex-dividend date is March 29, 2010. ESS is a Dividend Achiever and has raised its dividend for 16 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 4.83%.

Donaldson (DCI) operates as a worldwide manufacturer of filtration systems and replacement parts. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend 4% to $0.12/share. The dividend is payable March 19th to shareholders of record as of March 5th. The ex-dividend date is March 3. DCI is a Dividend Achiever and has raised its dividend for 24 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 1.147%.

CenturyLink (CTL) provides voice service to 7 million customers and Internet service to 2 million customers in both rural towns and larger cities, like Las Vegas. February 25th the company raised its quarterly dividend 3.6% to $0.725/share. The dividend is payable on March 22, 2010 to shareholders of record on March 9, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 5, 2010. CTL is a Dividend Aristocrat and has raised its dividend for 36 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 8.37%.

Gap Inc. (GPS) is a specialty apparel retailer operates Gap, Banana Republic and Old Navy stores. February 25th the company increased its dividend 18% to $0.10/share. The dividend is payable on April 28, 2010 to shareholders of record at the close of business on April 7, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 1.96%.

Old Republic Int. (ORI) writes property and liability, mortgage guaranty, title and life, and disability insurance. February 25th the company raised its quarterly dividend 1.4% to $0.1725/share. The dividend is payable March 15, 2010, to shareholders of record on March 5, 2010. Yield on the dividend is 6.1%. ORI is a Dividend Achiever and has raised its dividend for 28 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 6.13%.

Cleco Corp (CNL) generates, transmits, distributes and sells electricity in Louisiana; holds ownership interest in three steam electric generating stations and one gas turbine. February 25th the company increased its quarterly dividend 11% to $0.25/share. The dividend is payable May 15, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 3.90%.

The only way a company can consistently increase yield-on-cost is to consistently raise their dividends paid. For a list of stocks with a long string of consecutive cash dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: Long ABT, KMB, CTL. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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