Dividends Value » GPC

Genuine Parts Company (GPC) Dividend Stock Analysis *

D4L — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 07:30:55 +0000

This article originally appeared on The DIV-Net April 4, 2011.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Genuine Parts Company (GPC). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Genuine Parts Co is a leading wholesale distributor of automotive replacement parts, industrial parts and supplies, and office products.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

GPC is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. The stock is trading at a 14.6% premium to its calculated fair value of $46.81. GPC did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

GPC earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. GPC earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1948 and has increased its dividend payments for 55 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

The NPV MMA Diff. of the $386 is below the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as GPC has. If GPC grows its dividend at 4.8% per year, it will take 4 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.9%. GPC earned a check for the Key Metric ‘Years to >MMA’ since its 4 years is less than the 5 year target.

Memberships and Peers: GPC is a member of the S&P 500 and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company’s peer group includes: Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) with a 0.4% yield, AutoZone Inc. (AZO) with a 0.0% yield and W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) with a 1.6% yield.

Conclusion: GPC did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks GPC as a 3 Star-Hold.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $50.39 before GPC’s NPV MMA Differential increased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 55 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 3.57%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 5.4%. This dividend growth rate is slightly above the 4.8% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. GPC has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

GPC’s long string of dividend increases are supported by its strong underlying fundamentals of sales, earnings and free cash flow growth. The company exhibits excellent financial leadership as evidenced perseverance through the recent downturn. From an operating standpoint, GPC has an extensive distribution network and it has built a loyal customer following over the years. Since the company is trading well above my buy price of $46.81 and slightly above the $50.39 maximum price supported by its dividend fundamentals, I will wait for a pullback before adding to my position. For additional information, including the stock’s dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in GPC (2.2% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.

1 Company Announced A Higher Dividend, 7 To Pay Higher Dividends in April *

D4L — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 07:30:11 +0000

A stock with a high yield doesn’t mean much if the dividend is cut or eliminated, and the stock price declines significantly. Sometimes it is desirable to accept higher risk for a higher yield. Other times we may be accepting higher risk and are not being adequately compensated for the additional risk. One measure of dividend sustainability is the ability of management to consistently raise their dividends each year.

This week only one company announced raised the dividend growth bar one year by increasing its cash dividends paid:

International Paper (IP) is a global paper and packaging company with manufacturing operations in North America, Europe, Latin America, Russia, Asia and North Africa. March 29th the company increased its quarterly dividend 40% to $0.2625/share. The dividend is payable on June 15, 2011 to shareholders of record on May 17, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 3.6%.

The following companies will pay higher dividends in April:

Chubb Corporation (CB) as one of the largest U.S. property-casualty insurers, Chubb has carved out a number of niches, including high-end personal lines and specialty liability lines coverage. April 5th the company will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.39/share. This dividend is 5.4% higher than the previous quarter. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1902 and has increased its dividend payments for 47 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 2.6%.

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is the world’s largest beverage company, refreshing consumers with more than 500 sparkling and still brands. April 1st the company will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.47/share. This dividend is 7% higher than the previous quarter. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1893 and has increased its dividend payments for 49 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 3.0%.

Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) operates a chain of over 6,800 retail discount stores in 44 states across the U.S. April 15th the company will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.18/share. This dividend is 16% higher than the previous quarter. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1976 and has increased its dividend payments for 35 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 1.4%.

Genuine Parts Co. (GPC) is a distributor of automotive replacement parts in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. April 1st the company will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.45/share. This dividend is 10% higher than the previous quarter. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1948 and has increased its dividend payments for 55 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 3.4%.

Kimberly Clark Corp. (KMB) is a global consumer products company that produces tissue, personal care and health care. Its brands include Huggies, Pull-Ups, Kotex, Depend, Kleenex, Scott and Kimberly-Clark. April 4th the company will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.70/share. This dividend is 17% higher than the previous quarter. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1935 and has increased its dividend payments for 38 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 4.3%.

Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY) is an energy services company primarily engaged in the distribution of natural gas to more than one million residential, commercial and industrial utility customers in North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee. April 15th the company will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.29/share. This dividend is 3.6% higher than the previous quarter. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1956 and has increased its dividend payments for 33 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 3.9%.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) serves customers and members more than 200 million times per week at 8,970 retail units under 60 different banners in 15 countries. April 5th the company will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.3650/share. This dividend is 21% higher than the previous quarter. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1973 and has increased its dividend payments for 36 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 2.8%.

Selecting stocks with increasing dividends is critical for an income growth strategy. The above list contains stocks that recently raised their dividends; it is not a list of recommend buys. As always, due diligence should be performed before buying or selling any stock. For a list of stocks with a long string of consecutive cash dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: Long KO, GPC, KMB, PNY, WMT. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

23 Stocks With A Vision Of Higher Dividends *

D4L — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 07:30:59 +0000

To succeed as a dividend growth investor you must identify and purchase stocks with sustainable dividend growth. Inertia is powerful force. Once a company has established a track record of growing its dividend over the decades and developed a shareholder base that expects higher dividends each year, it becomes increasing difficult for management to cut or fail to raise their dividend. No CEO of this type of company wants a dividend cut to occur on his or her watch.

Here are a few select companies that have recently followed through on their vision of providing increased cash dividends to their shareholders:

Gap Inc. (GPS) operates as a specialty retailing company. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend 13% to $0.1125/share. The dividend is payable on or after April 27, 2011 to shareholders of record at the close of business on April 6, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 2.0%.

Chubb Corporation (CB) provides property and casualty insurance to businesses and individuals. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend 5.4% to $0.39/share. The dividend is payable April 5, 2011 to shareholders of record on March 18, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 2.6%.

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is a leader in investment management, risk management and advisory services for institutional and retail clients worldwide. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend 37.5% to $1.375/share. The dividend is payable March 23, 2011 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 7, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 2.7%.

Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) is a leading global consumer products company, tightly focused on Oral Care, Personal Care, Home Care and Pet Nutrition. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend 9% to $0.58/share. The Company has paid uninterrupted dividends on its common stock since 1895. The yield based on the new payout is 3.0%.

TECO Energy, Inc. (TE) is an energy-related holding company and its principal subsidiary, Tampa Electric Company, is a regulated utility in Florida with both electric and gas divisions. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend 3.7% to $0.215/share. The yield based on the new payout is 4.9%.

Southwest Gas Corporation (SWX) provides natural gas service to approximately 1.8 million customers in Arizona, Nevada, and California. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.265/share. The Company has paid quarterly dividends continuously since going public in 1956, and has raised its dividend in each of the past five years. The yield based on the new payout is 2.8%.

WesBanco, Inc. (WSBC) is a multi-state bank holding company of $5.4 billion in total assets providing banking services through 112 locations and 132 ATMs in West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend 7.1% to $0.15 per common share from the previous quarterly dividend rate of $0.14/share. The increased dividend will be payable on April 1, 2011 to shareholders of record on March 11, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 4.6%.

Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) provides risk management services for a wide variety of coverages, principally in the property and liability, mortgage guaranty and title insurance fields. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.1750/share. The dividend is payable March 15, 2011, to shareholders of record on March 4, 2011. This latest dividend increase marks the 30th consecutive year that Old Republic has boosted its cash dividend rate, and 2011 becomes the 30th year of uninterrupted cash dividend payments. The yield based on the new payout is 5.7%.

First PacTrust Bancorp, Inc. (FPTB) provides various financial services primarily in San Diego and Riverside Counties, California. February 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend 5% to $0.105/share. The dividend will be payable on April 1, 2011 to shareholders of record as of March 11, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 2.8%.

Essex Property Trust, Inc. (ESS) a real estate investment trust (REIT) with apartment communities located in targeted West Coast markets. February 23rd the company increased its quarterly dividend to $1.04/share. The dividend distribution is payable on April 15, 2011 to shareholders of record as of March 31, 2011 The yield based on the new payout is 3.5%

The Westar Energy, Inc. (WR) is the largest electric utility in Kansas, providing electric service to about 687,000 customers in the state. February 23rd the company increased its quarterly dividend 3% to $0.32/share. The dividend is payable April 1, 2011 on the company’s common stock. The yield based on the new payout is 4.9%

Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN) is one of the nation’s leading fashion specialty retailers, with 204 stores located in 28 states. February 23rd the company increased its quarterly dividend 15% to $0.23/share. The dividend is payable on March 15, 2011, to shareholders of record on March 4, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 2.1%

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is the fifth largest producer of containerboard and corrugated packaging products in the United States. February 22st the company increased its quarterly dividend 33% to $0.20/share. The dividendis payable on April 15, 2011 to shareholders of record as of March 15, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 2.8%

B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS) and its subsidiaries manufacture, sell and distribute a diversified portfolio of high-quality, shelf-table foods across the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. February 22st the company increased its quarterly dividend 24% to $0.21/stock. The dividend is payable on May 2, 2011 to shareholders of record as of March 31, 2011. This is the twenty-sixth consecutive quarterly dividend declared by the Board of Directors since B&G Foods’ initial public offering in October 2004. The yield based on the new payout is 6.0%.

The Allstate Corp. (ALL) is the nation’s largest publicly held personal lines insurer. February 22st the company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.21/share. The dividend is payable in on April 1, 2011 to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 11, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 2.7%.

Sempra Energy (SRE) is a Fortune 500 energy services holding company with 2009 revenues of more than $8 billion. February 22st the company increased its quarterly dividend 23% to $0.48/share. The dividend is payable April 15, 2011, to shareholders of record on March 18, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 3.6%.

The Home Depot (HD) is the world’s largest home improvement retailer. February 22st the company increased its quarterly dividend 6% to $0.25/share. “As a testament to our confidence in the Company’s strategic initiatives and our commitment to returning capital to our shareholders, the board increased the dividend for the second consecutive year,” Frank Blake, chairman & CEO. “It is our intent to increase our dividend every year. Our longer-term targeted dividend payout ratio is 40 percent.” The dividend is payable on March 24, 2011, to shareholders of record on the close of business on March 10, 2011. This is the 96th consecutive quarter the Company has paid a cash dividend. The yield based on the new payout is 2.7%.

Flowserve Corp. (FLS) is one of the world’s leading providers of fluid motion and control products and services. February 21st the company increased its quarterly dividend 10.3% to $0.32/share. The dividend is payable on April 14, 2011, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 31, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 1.1%.

Gentex Corporation (GNTX) is the leading supplier of automatic-dimming rearview mirrors and camera-based active safety systems to the global automotive industry. February 21st the company increased its quarterly dividend 9% to $0.12/share. The dividend is payable April 21, 2011, to shareholders of record of the common stock at the close of business on April 7, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 1.5%.

Genuine Parts Co. (GPC) is a distributor of automotive replacement parts in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. February 21st the company increased its quarterly dividend 10% to $0.45/share is payable April 1, 2011 to shareholders of record March 11, 2011. GPC has paid a cash dividend every year since going public in 1948, and 2011 marks the 55th consecutive year of increased dividends paid to shareholders. The yield based on the new payout is 3.4%.

Abbott (ABT) is a global, broad-based health care company devoted to the discovery, development, manufacture and marketing of pharmaceuticals and medical products, including nutritionals, devices and diagnostics. February 18th the company increased its quarterly dividend 9% to to $0.48/share. This marks the 39th consecutive year that Abbott has increased its dividend payout and the 349th consecutive quarterly dividend to be paid by Abbott since 1924. The dividend is payable May 16, 2011, to shareholders of record at the close of business on April 15, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 4.1%.

Questar Corp.’s (STR) is a Rockies-based integrated natural gas company with an enterprise value of about $4.3 billion and three complementary lines of business. February 18th the company increased its quarterly dividend 9% to $0.1525/share. The dividend is payable March 21, 2011 to shareholders of record on March 4, 2011. This is the company’s 265th consecutive quarterly dividend. Questar has increased its dividend 38 times in the last 39 years. The yield based on the new payout is 3.4%.

MOCON, Inc. (MOCO) is a leading provider of detectors, instruments, systems and consulting services to research laboratories, production facilities, and quality control and safety departments. February 18th the company increased its quarterly dividend 5% to $0.10/share. The dividend is payable on May 20, 2011, to shareholders of record on May 6, 2011. The yield based on the new payout is 3.2%.

Full Disclosure: Long ABT, CL, GPC. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

13 Dividend Stocks Headed In The Right Direction *

D4L — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 07:30:59 +0000

A photograph captures a moment in time. Seconds after the flash dims a tree could have fallen on the object of the photo or the sad looking man in the photo could have been told he just won a million dollars. In much the same way a dividend stock analysis is a snapshot in time, but the real question for the savvy dividend investor is ‘where is the stock headed?’ Here are four important directional metrics that I look for when updating my stock database…

1. Declining Shares

Many companies sell stock to raise cash. The important question is what is the company going to do with the cash? Is it for an acquisition or “general corporate purposes?” The latter is code for the business is not generating enough cash to stay afloat on its own. I am wary of a company that consistently has more shares outstanding in the current year when compared to the prior year. As I enter updates to my database, equal or lower shares outstanding is a sign of a healthy business.

2. Declining Debt

When companies need to raise cash and selling shares is not a good option, they often will issue debt. Once again, the important question is what is the company going to do with the cash? Like issuing shares, debt for a strategic acquisition is much more palatable than for “general corporate purposes.” I am wary of a company that consistently has more debt outstanding than the year before. As I enter updates to my database, I make note of companies with a declining debt balance and see that as a sign of a healthy business.

3. Rising Equity

Changes in shareholder’s equity are a result of earnings, dividends paid, treasury stock purchased, stock options exercised and stock issued. If shares outstanding aren’t increasing, and equity is rising then the business is generating sufficient earnings to cover dividends and share repurchases. Increasing the value of the company by running the business well is a sign of a healthy company.

4. Rising Free Cash Flow/Share

Ultimately, we want our investments to generate more free cash flow so they can pay us higher dividends. Free cash flow is an important metric in that it excludes cash generated from issuing stock or issuing debt or selling off parts of the business. Free cash flow is limited to only the cash generated from running the business.

Dividend Stocks Headed In The Right Direction

Combining the equity and debt metrics, I looked for companies with a declining Debt to Total Capital ratio, and combining the free cash flow and shares outstanding metrics, I looked for a rising free cash flow per share. Below are several companies I noted that exhibited each of the above characteristics:

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) is one of the world’s largest independent computing services companies, providing a broad range of data processing services.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 1%, TTM: 1%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $2.10, TTM: $3.06
Yield: 2.84%

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) is one of the largest multi-bank holding company headquartered in Texas, has more than 110 offices in various cities in the state.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 30%, TTM: 15%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $2.13, TTM: $5.23
Yield: 2.98%

Erie Indemnity Co. (ERIE) provides sales, underwriting, and policy issuance services to the policyholders of Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 0%, TTM: 0%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $4.33, TTM: $6.93
Yield: 2.77%

Genuine Parts Co. (GPC) is a leading wholesale distributor of automotive replacement parts, industrial parts and supplies, and office products.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 16%, TTM: 15%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $2.03, TTM: $3.57
Yield: 2.97%

Owens & Minor Inc. (OMI) is a leading domestic distributor of medical and surgical supplies to the acute care market, a health care supply chain management company, and a direct-to-consumer (DTC) supplier of testing and monitoring supplies for diabetes.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 29%, TTM: 20%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $1.75, TTM: $3.08
Yield: 2.25%

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) is a leading consumer products company that markets household and personal care products in more than 180 countries.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 38%, TTM: 33%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $2.65, TTM: $3.46
Yield: 3.00%

RPM International Inc. (RPM) makes specialty coatings and products for the structural waterproofing and corrosion control markets, as well as products for the consumer, do-it-yourself, and hobby markets.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 44%, TTM: 43%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $0.81, TTM: $1.34
Yield: 3.47%

J.M. Smucker Co.’s (SJM) products include coffee, fruit spreads, peanut butter, shortening and oils, ice cream toppings, health and natural foods, and beverages. The Folgers coffee business was acquired in November 2008.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 21%, TTM: 19%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $1.84, TTM: $3.69
Yield: 2.61%

Sonoco Products Co. (SON) makes paper and plastic packaging products serves various industries and markets in more than 85 countries.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 38%, TTM: 29%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $0.98, TTM: $1.68
Yield: 3.10%

Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) is a limited partnership that markets propane gas and other refined fuels to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 88%, TTM: 44%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $0.33, TTM: $3.67
Yield: 5.88%

AT&T Inc. (T) provides telephone and broadband service and holds full ownership of AT&T Mobility (formerly Cingular Wireless). AT&T Corp. was acquired in late 2005 and BellSouth in late 2006.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 42%, TTM: 39%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $2.10, TTM: $2.50
Yield: 5.88%

V.F. Corp. (VFC) is a global apparel company, with leading shares in denim and daypacks. It is transforming itself into a designer and marketer of lifestyle apparel brands.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 22%, TTM: 20%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $4.11, TTM: $9.46
Yield: 2.71%

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) offers wireline, wireless and broadband services primarily in the northeastern United States. It acquired MCI Inc in 2006 and has since sold or spun off non-core assets. Alltel was acquired in early 2009.
Debt to Total Capital | 2005: 50%, TTM: 39%
Free Cash Flow/Share | 2005: $2.37, TTM: $6.07
Yield: 5.22%

Businesses can pay dividends with cash generated from many sources. They can generate cash by issuing shares, which dilutes our ownership. They can generate cash by issuing debt, which burdens the company with interest payments. Or, they can generate cash by running the business well, which neither dilutes the current shareholders’ interest or burdens them with future cash payments. Which would you rather have?

Full Disclosure: Long ADP, GPC, OMI, PG, T. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

Dividend Stocks vs. a Safe Distribution Rate *

D4L — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 07:30:39 +0000

One of the most interesting questions that often comes up is “How much can you safely withdraw each year from your retirement portfolio?” In 1995, Peter Lynch wrote that a 7% annual withdrawal rate would be prudent for an all-stock portfolio. He later retracted his analysis when financial columnist Scott Burns proved that a 7% withdrawal rate could put you back into the work force just to make ends meet.

There is not a lot of research in this area since most people spend their time contemplating capital accumulation, not spending it. However, there are a few studies on “safe” withdrawal rates. Let’s look at a few of them and consider what could be a better alternative…

The Bengen Study

In February 1997, the Wall Street Journal columnist Jonathan Clements reported on a study by San Diego based financial planner William Bengen. Bengen looked at year-by-year returns since 1925 for a 50/50 stock/bond portfolio. He assumed half the portfolio was in the S&P 500 and half in intermediate term government bonds. Using a 30 year holding period, he calculated that a 4.1% withdrawal rate would allow you to survive the worst market declines.

The Harvard Study

In 1973, Harvard University did a study to determine how much they could safely withdraw from their endowment fund without eroding the principal. Assuming a portfolio of 50% stocks and 50% bonds and cash, Harvard’s analysts calculated they could withdraw 4% the first year and then adjust the subsequent year’s withdrawals for inflation. For example, if there was 10% inflation, the second year’s withdrawal would be 4.4% of the initial (i.e., first year) asset value.

The Trinity Study

Dallas Morning News columnist Scott Burns has written extensively on a “safe” withdrawal study by three Trinity University researchers. The Trinity Study measures the “success rate” of various portfolios from 1926 to 1995. The “success rate” is the percent of time a retiree could sustain a given withdrawal rate without depleting his retirement assets. The optimal asset mix is 75% stock/25% long term corporate bonds. For a 30 year payout period and a 4% withdrawal rate, this mix had a 98% success rate. At a 3% withdrawal rate, the 75/25 mix had a 100% success rate. Interpolating these results would give you a “safe” withdrawal rate of slightly less than 4%, virtually identical to the Harvard study.

So it seems that 4% is the number that all these studies are pointing to based on on historical data. But is it a safe number if you retire today? More recently Burns wrote:

The established safe-withdrawal-rate rules of thumb are based on long periods of time in which yields were higher than they are today and stock valuations were lower. A growing school of thought believes future withdrawal rates should be reduced to reflect expected lower future returns. This would knock another 1.5 to 2 percentage points off the safe withdrawal rate.

You must also consider is that these studies are based on investment returns before expenses. If you’re paying an investment advisor an annual fee of 2% of assets and he has you invested in no-load mutual funds with a 0.5% expense ratio, your annual expenses are 2.5%. Your “safe” withdrawal rate is is now 2.5% lower than what you previously thought.

Dividend Growth Stocks: A Better Way

When I retire, I want a high degree of assurance that I won’t run out of money, have to start a second career or develop a taste for cheap dog food. I plan on achieving my goal of an ever growing income with a diversified portfolio of high-quality dividend stocks. Why would I settle for trying to live on as little as 1.5% to 4% of my portfolio, when I can build a portfolio of dividend paying stocks that will provide for my needs without depleting the principle. Here are several stocks that I plan to rely on for decades to come:

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) | Dividend Growth: 8.3%| Yield: 3.6%
ABT is a diversified life science company and is a leading maker of drugs, nutritional products, diabetes monitoring devices, and diagnostics.

Genuine Parts Co. (GPC) | Dividend Growth: 2.5%| Yield: 3.2%
GPC is a leading wholesale distributor of automotive replacement parts, industrial parts and supplies, and office products.

Harleysville Group Inc. (HGIC) | Dividend Growth: 8.0%| Yield: 3.7%
HGIC underwrites a broad array of personal and commercial coverages. These insurance coverages are marketed primarily in the Eastern and Midwestern United States.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | Dividend Growth: 8.4%| Yield: 3.4%
JNJ is a leader in the pharmaceutical, medical device and consumer products industries.

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) | Dividend Growth: 7.3%| Yield: 2.7%
KO is the world’s largest soft drink company, KO also has a sizable fruit juice business. Its bottling interests include a 34% stake in NYSE-listed Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE).

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) | Dividend Growth: 15.0%| Yield: 2.9%
MCD is the largest fast-food restaurant company in the world, with about 32,500 restaurants in 117 countries.

Medtronic Inc. (MDT) | Dividend Growth: 9.4%| Yield: 2.4%
MDT is a global medical device manufacturer with leadership positions in the pacemaker, defibrillator, orthopedic, diabetes management, and other medical markets.

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) | Dividend Growth: 6.5%| Yield: 2.9%
PepsiCo, Inc. is a major international producer of branded beverage and snack food products.

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) | Dividend Growth: 7.0%| Yield: 3.0%
PG is a leading consumer products company markets household and personal care products in more than 180 countries.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) | Dividend Growth: 11.0%| Yield: 2.3%
WMT is the largest retailer in North America. The company operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wal-Mart Stores, Sam’s Club, and International.

Not all of these stocks are a buy today, but they are ones you will eventually want to add to your dividend portfolio. Retirement planning doesn’t have to be difficult. A financially successful retirement requires planning, discipline and execution. The sooner you start, the easier it is. Don’t risk running out of money before you run out of life.

Full Disclosure: Long ABT, GPC, HGIC, JNJ, KO, MCD, MDT, PEP, PG, WMT. See a list of all my income holdings here.

Sources: Dallas News, Retire Early, passionsaving.com

(Photo Credit)

Pocket Change Portfolio – October 2010 *

D4L — Sat, 20 Nov 2010 07:30:45 +0000

The Pocket Change Portfolio (PCP) was first introduced on September 13, 2008 as a real money dividend income portfolio funded by the “pocket change” earned from my various online endeavors. Each month I report on the portfolio’s progress and update its holdings.

Dividends Received

Total dividends received during the month were $218.33, consisting of:

$29.04 The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
$7.57 Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF (BIV)
$11.48 Genuine Parts Company (GPC)
$14.96 Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP)
$31.68 Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB)
$27.00 Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (LEG)
$24.00 Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF)
$38.00 Sysco Corp. (SYY)
$4.90 PowerShares Emerging Mkt Debt (PCY)
$29.70 Medtronic, Inc. (MDT)

Dividend Stock Purchases

The following securities were purchased during the month:

30 Shares Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) providing $64.80 in annual dividend income
50 Shares Harleysville Group Inc. (HGIC) providing $72.00 in annual dividend income
58 Shares AT&T, Inc. (T) providing $97.44 in annual dividend income
40 Shares Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) providing $54.44 in annual dividend income

Also, I liquidated my position in Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF (BIV).

Annualized Dividend Income

Including the above purchases, my annual PCP dividend income is now $2,494.16 at the current dividend rates. This is up $293.84 from last month’s $2,200.32 amount. The PCP has never had a monthly decline in annualized dividend income.

Portfolio Returns

Month: 2.31%
Year-to-date: 11.98%
Life-to-date: 15.30% (annualized)

My PCP holdings are always available by selecting the Holdings option from the menu in the header. The next PCP update will be mid-December.

(Photo: sanja gjenero)

17 Stocks With Room To Grow Their Dividend *

D4L — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 07:30:50 +0000

Dividend sustainability is paramount for the high-yield investor. Having a stock cut its dividend could potentially crush their income. A high-yield investor is less concerned about dividend growth than maintaining the current high-yield. Most traditional dividend growth stocks pay a moderate to low yield, thus sustainability is not enough – the dividend growth investor also expects substantial and consistent growth.

This expectation does not change even when the economy turns down and earnings decline; dividend growth investors still require annual dividend growth. The companies that are able to accomplish this are those with a operating model that generates strong free cash flows with room to pay out a higher percentage as dividends. Below are several companies with a low free cash flow payout (below 40%):

	Current	FCF
Company	Yield	Payout
Cardinal Health (CAH)	2.44%	11.01%
Diebold, Inc. (DBD)	3.30%	17.21%
General Dynamics (GD)	2.54%	25.84%
PPG Industries, (PPG)	2.84%	26.16%
Medtronic Inc. (MDT)	2.52%	27.88%
ADP, Inc. (ADP)	3.08%	30.34%
Procter & Gamble (PG)	3.04%	31.30%
Intel Corporation (INTC)	3.19%	32.05%
Abbott Labs (ABT)	3.27%	34.76%
Genuine Parts (GPC)	3.45%	39.57%

An interesting twist to the above is a 2006 study conducted by Credit Suisse that found high dividend yield stocks generally
outperformed those with lower yields. However, the best returns did not come from those with the highest yields, but those with higher yields coupled with low payout ratios. The study found that high yield, low payout stocks that produced the better returns were priced at low ratios of price-to-earnings, and as a corollary, at high ratios of earnings-to-price; i.e., earnings yield. Put another way, the stocks prices were depressed, thus creating the higher yield and a value play. Below are several dividend growth stocks with a higher yields (around 4%+) and low free cash flow payouts (50% and below):

	Current	FCF
Company	Yield	Payout
Integrys Energy (TEG)	5.09%	24.43%
Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI)	6.60%	43.01%
Atmos Energy (ATO)	4.60%	46.64%
Cincinnati Finl. (CINF)	5.21%	46.87%
Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY)	5.54%	50.33%
Federated Investors (FII)	4.02%	39.92%
Harleysville Grp (HGIC)	3.95%	34.72%

At some point we will all want to retire, but that is not to say we want our portfolio to stop working for us. A good dividend growth stock portfolio will not only provide us income in our retirement, but provide us more income each year than the one before.

Full Disclosure: Long GD, MDT, ADP, PG, INTC, ABT, GPC, TEG, CINF, LLY, HGIC. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

We Were Dividends, Before Dividends Were Cool *

D4L — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 07:30:55 +0000

It seems nowadays that every investing article ends with the same conclusion – you should be buying dividend stocks. They are all quoting studies citing the performance edge that dividends have enjoyed over the long-term and the value of a semi-fixed return generated from periodic dividend payments. However, you should beware of some of the information provided. Beyond the simple concepts, some of the writers are making really bad recommendations and cross-breeding dividend investing with their preferred form of investing.

Dividend growth investing is not about exit points, momentum swings, relative strength, sector rotation; instead it is about studying fundamentals, selecting superior stocks and building a portfolio with a long-term horizon. When we buy a dividend stock, we hope to hold it forever. What makes a good dividend stock? Here are some of the things I look for:

Good Business Model

Sell things that people want or need, and do it in such a way that it is difficult or impossible for others to duplicate. There is a reason that pharmaceutical companies, such as Abbott Laboratories (ABT), are so profitable. With effective drugs under patent that sustain or enhance people’s life these companies have a deep moat. Consumer goods companies like Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) and Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB) manufacture products such as soap, detergent and toilet paper that we just can’t do without. Sure, there may be generic substitutes, but over the years many of these products have endeared themselves to consumers who are willing to pay a few cents more for the name brand.

Strong Free Cash Flow

Dividends are paid with cash remaining after paying the operating expenses and replacement capital (free cash flow). If a company has trouble meeting these basic needs, then its dividend is perilously at risk. Companies with a low free cash flow payout (FCF) payout are well-positioned to sustain their dividend. Such companies include: Target Corporation (TGT) at 13.85% FCF Payout, Diebold, Inc. (DBD) at 17.21%, International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) at 19.48% and Walgreen Company (WAG) at 22.71%.

Acceptable Debt Level

Generating a strong free cash flow is not enough – cash has to be available to be paid as dividends. As a result of the economic downturn, many companies are feeling pressure to reduce debt to stay within their covenants and try to maintain their debt rating. If a company’s excess cash is being used to service debt, there may not be any left over to increase dividends. Companies with a low debt to total capital include: T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) at 0.00% Debt to Total Capital, Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) at 0.69%, Harleysville Group Inc. (HGIC) at 13.19% and Genuine Parts Company (GPC) at 15.76%.

Good Balance between Dividend Yield and Growth

There is usually a reason why a stock’s yield is above average. Often it is the market’s way of saying it doesn’t believe the company can maintain the dividend. Most people understand this risk. However, there is also risk to a stock that has a high dividend growth rate. To maintain a high dividend growth rate the company has to grow cash available for dividends at the same rate. This is often difficult to do. Here are several companies with a good balance between dividend yield and dividend growth rate: The Coca-Cola Company (KO) 2.94% yield and 7.32% dividend growth rate, UGI Corporation (UGI) 3.06% yield and 5.70% growth, The Clorox Company (CLX) 3.24% yield and 9.35% growth, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 3.31% yield and 8.42% growth and Corporate Office Properties (OFC) 4.25% yield and 5.22% growth.

For those of us that have invested in dividends for years (decades for some), we know dividend growth investing is not a passing fad to be “played” then move on the next hot investment strategy. Part of me will be glad when dividend investing falls out of favor and the masses moves on.

Full Disclosure: Long ABT, PG, ADP, HGIC, CLX, GP, JNJ, KMB, KO. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

12 Dividend Stocks Delivering The Secret To Success *

D4L — Wed, 13 Oct 2010 07:30:11 +0000

We all want to learn the secret to success. Many get-rich-now infomercials have preyed on this desire while making the sellers wealthy at the expense of the buyers. I have good news for you, there really is a secret to success, and what is even better news is that the secret is not hard to discover. It has been right there in front of you all this this time. Your parents likely taught it to you in the form of a fable. Let’s explore this secret to success a little more…

As a child most of heard (or watched) Aesop’s fable The Tortoise and the Hare. The story is about confident hare that brags about how fast he can run while poking fun at a slow-moving tortoise. The tortoise having tired of the hare’s fodder challenges him to a race. The hare jumps out to an early lead and decides to take a nap midway through the race. When he awakes, he finds that the tortoise made steady progress and beat him to the finish line.

Have you ever stopped to ponder just where are all these get-rich-now infomercial millionaires? I know several people who have purchased one or more of these get-rich-now kits, but I don’t know of anyone who actually got rich from purchasing the kit. Warren Buffett and Bill Gates didn’t build their fortunes with a get-rich-now kit. They worked hard built it steadily over time.

In much the same way, a disciplined approach to investing, such as dividend growth stocks, can be highly effective. Though it may seem boring to many, I find it exciting to see my income growing as the finish line approaches. Consider these slow and steady growers:

	Current	Dividend	Yrs of
Company	Yield	Growth	Growth
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)	2.22%	11.01%	36
Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)	2.87%	6.48%	38
Sysco Corp. (SYY)	3.43%	6.52%	39
Federal Realty (FRT)	3.22%	1.53%	42
Colgate (CL)	2.71%	12.48%	47
Illinois Tool Works (ITW)	2.68%	4.84%	47
J&J (JNJ)	3.34%	8.42%	48
Coca-Cola (KO)	2.96%	7.32%	48
3M Company (MMM)	2.36%	2.47%	52
Emerson Electric (EMR)	2.51%	1.52%	53
Genuine Parts (GPC)	3.64%	2.50%	54
Procter & Gamble (PG)	3.12%	6.96%	54

There are really no shortcuts to long-term wealth. Many of those that win the lottery end up losing the money through mismanagement (or worse.) Dividend growth stocks may be slow, but they are also steady; and slow and steady wins the race.

Full Disclosure: Long WMT, PEP, SYY, CL, ITW, JNJ, KO, MMM, EMR, GPC, PG. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo: Photo Credit)

The 2010 Elite Dividend Stocks List *

D4L — Wed, 22 Sep 2010 07:30:31 +0000

As dividend growth investors, we want to limit our purchases to only the very best stocks. Our first step is to look at published lists of dividend companies such as S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, US Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and The U.S. Dividend Champions. These lists are used to narrow the population of all publically traded companies down to the very best dividend stocks. When these lists are combined, as I did with the Stock Ideas list, it is still a large and daunting collection of 218 unique companies. So, how do we find the Elite companies on this list?

In 2009, I devised additional criteria to apply to the Stock Ideas list in an effort to eliminate all but the the Elite Dividend Stocks. Here is the additional criteria that I came up with, along with the companies that met the criteria:

A Long Track Record Of Consecutive Dividend Increases: Aristocrats and Champions have increased their dividends for 25 consecutive years, while Achievers have done so for 10 years. The quickest way to narrow the list down was only include companies with 35 or more years of consecutive dividend increases. This reduced the number of companies to 57.

Ability To Generate Positive Free Cash Flows: To have cash available for dividends, a company must have cash left over after paying the operating expenses and normal capital expenditures. For this I looked for companies that had positive free cash flow for the last 10 years.

Free Cash Flow Sufficient To Pay The Dividend: Free cash flow can be positive, but still not enough to cover an increasing dividend. To ensure adequate coverage, I screened for companies with a 60% or less Free Cash Flow payout ratio.

Low Debt: Dividends paid out of Free Cash Flow must compete for other needs of the business such as interest and debt payments. Lower debt and interest requirements make available more cash for dividend payments. For this item, I eliminated all companies that had a debt to total capital percent in excess of 35%.

Low Risk: An Elite Dividend company should provide a superior return without subjecting your investment to undue risk. For this item, I limited the companies to those with a risk # less than 1.5.

My Elite Dividends List that started with 218 companies, then after considering all the above, it is left with the following nine companies:

		Debt To	FCF	Years of
Company	Yield	Capital	Payout	Div Grow
WW Grainger (GWW)	1.75%	17.99%	22.36%	39
RLI Corp. (RLI)	2.06%	10.53%	5.69%	35
Wal-Mart (WMT)	2.28%	23.88%	36.30%	36
Chubb Corp. (CB)	2.57%	20.16%	19.85%	46
Coca-Cola Co. (KO)	3.06%	16.15%	57.47%	48
P&G (PG)	3.16%	32.69%	31.30%	54
J&J (JNJ)	3.43%	18.62%	38.98%	48
Diebold, Inc. (DBD)	3.62%	34.64%	17.21%	57
Genuine Parts (GPC)	3.77%	15.76%	39.57%	54

This is not a buy list. As noted above, the Elite Dividend List ignores valuation and other factors you must consider before purchasing one of these companies. As we build our dividend growth portfolios, it only makes sense to build its core with the very best stocks.

Full Disclosure: Long WMT, KO, PG, JNJ, GPC. See a list of all my income holdings here.