Dividends Value » LLY

List of 195 Dividend Stocks Every Income Investor Should Know About *

D4L — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 07:30:16 +0000

In 2009, I introduced the Stock Ideas list and it has proven to be immensely popular. The list consists of Dividend Aristocrats, US Broad Dividend Achievers and U.S. Dividend Champions. Duplications in the above lists are eliminated and stocks are crossed out when I learn that they have either cut their dividend or fail to raise it. Here is some information on each of the constituent lists and some highlights on this year’s changes:

Dividend Aristocrats: Companies in the S&P 500 that have followed a policy of consistently increasing dividends every year for at least 25 consecutive years. As the name denotes, these are the best of the best – the blue blood stocks, including names like:

US Broad Dividend Achievers: Is comprised of companies incorporated in the United States or its territories, trade on the NYSE, NASDAQ or AMEX, and have increased their annual regular dividend payments for the last ten or more consecutive years. Notable names on this list include:

The U.S. Dividend Champions: Is maintained by Dave Fish of MoneyPaper. The list is updated monthly and located at the The Drip Investing Resource Center. Like the Dividend Aristocrats above the Dividend Champions list looks for companies that have increased their dividend for at least 25 consecutive years. However, since S&P 500 membership is not a requirement, the list is larger than the Dividend Aristocrats list and also includes small-cap companies.

- Bowl America (BWL.A) | Yield: 5.0%
- Conn. Water Service (CTWS) | Yield: 3.8%
- Weyco Group Inc. (WEYS) | Yield: 2.6%

Membership in the Stock Ideas list declined in this edition, but it was significantly less than what was experience in the prior year. Overall the number of constituents fell to 198 in the 2011 Stock Ideas list from 218 stocks in the 2010 list. There were 319 stocks in 2009. There were 28 companies that fell off the list, including these prominent stocks:

- Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY)
- Paychex Inc. (PAYX)
- Progress Energy Inc. (PGN)
- SUPERVALU Inc. (SVU)
- Integrys Energy Group, Inc. (TEG)

The news wasn’t all bad. Partially offsetting the 28 companies that fell off the list were 5 new companies joining the Dividend Stock Ideas List. Some of these aren’t household names, not yet at least, but here are some names we will likely be seeing in the future:

You can see the entire Dividend Stock Idea List here. Remember, not every stock listed here is a great dividend investment, but virtually all great dividend investments are on this list.

Full Disclosure: Long ABT, KO, JNJ, MCD, MMM, PG, WMT, CVX, NUE, LLY, TEG. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

The 2011 Dividend Aristocrats *

D4L — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 07:30:21 +0000

The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats is the most prestigious list of dividend stocks. The Dividend Aristocrats index is designed to measure the performance of S&P 500 constituents that have followed a policy of consistently increasing dividends every year for at least 25 consecutive years. This index is a member of the S&P Dividend Aristocrats index series.

Dividend Aristocrats constituents exhibit the following characteristics:

- Underlying Indices – S&P 500
- Weighting – Equally weighted; Constituents re-weighted quarterly
- Reconstitution – Reviewed annually in December

Among others, Dividend Aristocrats include these highly recognizable names, with years of consecutive dividend increases shown:

- 3M Co. (MMM) – 52 years
- Abbott Laboratories (ABT) – 38 years
- Clorox Co (CLX) – 35 years
- Coca-Cola Co (KO) – 48 years
- Exxon (XOM) – 28 years
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – 48 years
- McDonald’s Corp (MCD) – 34 years
- Procter & Gamble (PG) – 54 years
- Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) – 36 years

Members may be deleted during the December rebalance if calendar-year dividends did not increase from the previous year, or intra-year if the stock is removed from the underlying S&P 500.

On December 2nd, S&P announced changes to the Dividend Aristocrats Index. Standard & Poor’s will perform the annual reconstitution of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index after the close of trading on Friday, December 17, 2010.

The following stocks will be added to the Dividend Aristocrats:

- McCormick & Company (MKC)
- Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)
- Ecolab Inc. (ECL)

The following stocks will be dropped from the Dividend Aristocrats:

- Eli Lilly And Company (LLY)
- SUPERVALU Inc. (SVU)
- Integrys Energy Group, Inc. (TEG)

After last year’s significant decline, it is good see the membership number level off. The previous two years were difficult for dividend stocks, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. During good times it is easy for companies to increase dividends, and many companies were added to the index. It is during times of adversity that we learn who the real aristocrats are.

Full Disclosure: Long MMM, ABT, CLX, KO, JNJ, LLY, MCD, PG, TEG, WMT. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Dividend Stock Analysis *

D4L — Mon, 13 Dec 2010 07:30:06 +0000

This article originally appeared on The DIV-Net December 6, 2010.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Johnson & Johnson is a leader in the pharmaceutical, medical device and consumer products industries.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

JNJ is trading at a discount to 1.) and 3.) above. The stock is trading at a 10.9% discount to its calculated fair value of $70.24. JNJ earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

JNJ earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. JNJ earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1944 and has increased its dividend payments for 48 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

JNJ earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $1,588. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as JNJ has. If JNJ grows its dividend at 8.4% per year, it will take 1 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.4%. JNJ earned a check for the Key Metric ‘Years to >MMA’ since its 1 years is less than the 5 year target.

Memberships and Peers: JNJ is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company’s peer group includes: Abbott Laboratories (ABT) with a 3.7% yield, Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) with a 5.7% yield and Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) with a 5.0% yield.

Conclusion: JNJ earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks JNJ as a 5 Star-Strong Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $93.41 before JNJ’s NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 48 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.26%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 4.5%. This dividend growth rate is well below the 8.4% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. JNJ has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a low risk stock.

The company enjoys a diverse revenue base, an excellent research pipeline, a pristine balance sheet and exceptional free cash-flows to cover its dividend. This diversity and strength will help the company overcome near-term results from patent losses on Risperdal and Topamax. JNJ’s recent product quality issues, could stagnate its share price for a period of time, but for long-term investors, this could create a buying opportunity. I will continue to add to my position as my allocation allows and when JNJ is trading below my buy price of $70.24. For additional information, including the stock’s dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in JNJ (3.9% of my Income Portfolio). I also held position in ABT and LLY. See a list of all my income holdings here.

Related Articles:

- Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) Dividend Stock Analysis
- The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Kimberly-Clark Co. (KMB) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Dividend Stock Analysis
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Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Dividend Stock Analysis *

D4L — Mon, 08 Nov 2010 07:30:40 +0000

This article originally appeared on The DIV-Net November 1, 2010.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Abbott Laboratories (ABT). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Abbott Laboratories is a diversified life science company and is a leading maker of drugs, nutritional products, diabetes monitoring devices, and diagnostics.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

ABT is trading at a discount to only 1.) above. The stock is trading at a 7.4% discount to its calculated fair value of $55.42. ABT earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

ABT earned two Stars in this section for 1.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. ABT earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1926 and has increased its dividend payments for 38 consecutive years.

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

ABT earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $1,500. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as ABT has. If ABT grows its dividend at 8.3% per year, it will take 1 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.4%. ABT earned a check for the Key Metric ‘Years to >MMA’ since its 1 years is less than the 5 year target.

Memberships and Peers: ABT is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company’s peer group includes: Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) with a 4.8% yield, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) with a 3.4% yield, and Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) with a 5.6% yield.

Conclusion: ABT earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks ABT as a 4 Star-Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $74.95 before ABT’s NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 38 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.29%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 4.5%. This dividend growth rate is well below the 8.3% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. ABT has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a low risk stock.

All pharmaceutical companies face the inevitable patent expirations and the ensuing generic competition. However, ABT has a strong product pipeline including potential significant launches in the medical device and pharmaceutical areas. In addition to pharmaceutical, ABT will also rely on its diagnostics business, nutritional division, and an emerging vascular group to generate future earnings. With its strong financials and excellent management team, ABT is in a position to continue its growth and to generate strong returns. I will continue to add to my position while it is trading below my buy price of $55.42 and as my allocation allows. For additional information, including the stock’s dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in ABT (4.4% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.

Related Articles:

- Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Leggett & Platt, Inc. (LEG) Dividend Stock Analysis
- The Clorox Company (CLX) Dividend Stock Analysis
- HCC Insurance Holdings Inc. (HCC) Dividend Stock Analysis
- More Stock Analysis

17 Stocks With Room To Grow Their Dividend *

D4L — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 07:30:50 +0000

Dividend sustainability is paramount for the high-yield investor. Having a stock cut its dividend could potentially crush their income. A high-yield investor is less concerned about dividend growth than maintaining the current high-yield. Most traditional dividend growth stocks pay a moderate to low yield, thus sustainability is not enough – the dividend growth investor also expects substantial and consistent growth.

This expectation does not change even when the economy turns down and earnings decline; dividend growth investors still require annual dividend growth. The companies that are able to accomplish this are those with a operating model that generates strong free cash flows with room to pay out a higher percentage as dividends. Below are several companies with a low free cash flow payout (below 40%):

	Current	FCF
Company	Yield	Payout
Cardinal Health (CAH)	2.44%	11.01%
Diebold, Inc. (DBD)	3.30%	17.21%
General Dynamics (GD)	2.54%	25.84%
PPG Industries, (PPG)	2.84%	26.16%
Medtronic Inc. (MDT)	2.52%	27.88%
ADP, Inc. (ADP)	3.08%	30.34%
Procter & Gamble (PG)	3.04%	31.30%
Intel Corporation (INTC)	3.19%	32.05%
Abbott Labs (ABT)	3.27%	34.76%
Genuine Parts (GPC)	3.45%	39.57%

An interesting twist to the above is a 2006 study conducted by Credit Suisse that found high dividend yield stocks generally
outperformed those with lower yields. However, the best returns did not come from those with the highest yields, but those with higher yields coupled with low payout ratios. The study found that high yield, low payout stocks that produced the better returns were priced at low ratios of price-to-earnings, and as a corollary, at high ratios of earnings-to-price; i.e., earnings yield. Put another way, the stocks prices were depressed, thus creating the higher yield and a value play. Below are several dividend growth stocks with a higher yields (around 4%+) and low free cash flow payouts (50% and below):

	Current	FCF
Company	Yield	Payout
Integrys Energy (TEG)	5.09%	24.43%
Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI)	6.60%	43.01%
Atmos Energy (ATO)	4.60%	46.64%
Cincinnati Finl. (CINF)	5.21%	46.87%
Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY)	5.54%	50.33%
Federated Investors (FII)	4.02%	39.92%
Harleysville Grp (HGIC)	3.95%	34.72%

At some point we will all want to retire, but that is not to say we want our portfolio to stop working for us. A good dividend growth stock portfolio will not only provide us income in our retirement, but provide us more income each year than the one before.

Full Disclosure: Long GD, MDT, ADP, PG, INTC, ABT, GPC, TEG, CINF, LLY, HGIC. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

When To Sell A Dividend Stock *

D4L — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 07:30:47 +0000

As a long-term buy-and-hold investor, most of my evaluation efforts are aimed at determining when to buy a stock. Sometimes it is necessary to sell a stock and we need to be equally adept at identifying those times. I have stated on numerous occasions that I have one hard and fast sell rule for my individual dividend stocks: When an individual stock held as a dividend investment lowers its dividend, immediately sell it. However, there are other times it makes sense to sell. Consider these:

Significant Price Run-up Distorting Dividend Fundamentals

When you buy a dividend stock at a depressed level it will eventually return to its norm. However, at its normal level the dividend fundamentals could be so bad that you would be better off putting the money to work somewhere else. For this evaluation, my primary indicator is the NPV MMA Differential. When this metric goes negative, it in effect is saying you are better off putting the into a money market account for the next 20 years. When this occurs I look for a way to exit the position and retrieve my original investment, leaving the portion attributable to capital appreciation. Examples of stocks that I hold with these characteristics (or close to it) are:

Dividend Freeze Leading to Poor Dividend Fundamentals

When a company fails to raise its dividend (dividend freeze), the dividend fundamentals quickly deteriorate if its yield is low. It is easier to be patient when the yield is higher and the stock is still earning its way. However, as dividend growth investors, ultimately we expect our dividends to grow: Below are several stocks that failed to raise their dividends at the expected time:

Historical Performance Is Not Indicative Of Expected Results

Sometimes historical results are indicating the stock is a good investment, but something just doesn’t seem right. In situations like this there is probably a reason for the uneasiness and it is in our best interest to understand why we feel that way. Usually we know something that is not reflected in the financials.

This recently occurred with my AFLAC Inc. (AFL) position. I had been closely watching AFL since the time it first failed to raise its dividend. For a stock with a yield as low as AFL, dividend growth is paramount for its long-term success. My model’s calculated dividend growth rate was higher than what I expected going forward, at least for the near term. Its annual dividend growth has been declining since 2008, with 2010 growth only 3.6% (considering 2 dividends at $0.28 and two at $0.30). This was the only single digit increase in the last 10 years. When considering AFL’s most recent increase, the NPV MMA differential is under-performing its target. AFL has a large exposure to hybrid bonds (particularly European banks) and exposure to European sovereign debt. This makes them more risky than many other Financial Services companies. I have been looking to reallocate a portion of my financial Financial Services holdings (currently in excess of 10%) and I considered AFL one of my weaker financial stocks, so I sold it.

Substantial Change In The Business

Sometimes the world changes and what you were selling yesterday at a premium you can’t give away today. This phenomenon has been played out since the beginning of time. Rock gathers were replace with club makers who were replaced with spear makers who were replaced with arrow makers who were replaced with musket makers who were replaced with rifle makers, and so on. We see this happening today with the print media. Companies like Courier Corporation (CRRC) that publishes, prints and sells books, and Gannett Co., Inc. (GCI) an international media company that owns USA Today have struggled recently as people have moved from print media to online. Both companies were unable to continue the string of consecutive dividend increases.

Other times a catastrophe will shake a company to it very foundation. This has been most evident with the recent oil disaster in the Gulf. BP (BP) was not prepared for a situation like it faced. As the damage claims mounted, investors lost confidence in management to stop the oil flow and began to sell off the stock. A dividend cut soon followed.

Buy-And-Hold Not Buy-And-Forget

All investors need to be vigilant and keep a close watch on their investments. There are few certainties in an uncertain world. Things change and adjustments must be made. Buy-and-hold is a successful investment strategy; buy-and-forget is a recipe for disaster.

Full Disclosure: Long MMM, EMR, GPC, ITW, PAYX, LLY, PGN, TEG. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo: sanja gjenero)

My Top 6 Performing Dividend Stocks Just Might Surprise You *

D4L — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 07:30:37 +0000

As I have stated many times, my goal is to create an ever growing income stream from dividend stocks. Secondarily, it is my desire to beat the S&P 500 over time. With that said, I rarely look at the capital performance of individual stocks. However, I recently sorted my portfolio by Total Gain % (total gain/basis) and was mildly surprised at the top performers.

It is important to note that dividends paid are not factored in the Total Gain % calculation. Therefore, the total return is actually higher than the numbers reported. The holding periods differ for each, so I have noted the purchase dates.

6. Realty Income Corp. (O) – Yield: 5.4% | Total Gain: 24.91%
Purchases: 5/2006, 11/2006, 12/2006, 2/2007, 6/2007
Realty Income Corporation engages in the acquisition and ownership of commercial retail real estate properties in United States.

5. Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) – Yield: 1.7% | Total Gain: 26.14%
Purchases: 11/2007, 7/2008
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) operates Canada’s largest railroad, linking customers in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico through approximately 20,400 miles of track.

4. Integrys Energy Group, Inc. (TEG) – Yield: 5.7% | Total Gain: 26.22%
Purchases: 11/2008, 2/2009
Integrys Energy Group, Inc., serves about 485,000 regulated electric and 1,674,000 regulated gas customers. The company also operates an unregulated retail marketing business.

3. CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL) – Yield: 8.1% | Total Gain: 27.87%
Purchases: 11/2008, 1/2009, 5/2009
CenturyLink, Inc. acquired larger telecom peer Embarq in a stock deal in July 2009. Combined, the company provides voice service to 7 million customers and Internet service to 2 million customers in both rural towns and larger cities, like Las Vegas.

2. Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) – Yield: 2.8% | Total Gain: 35.87%
Purchases: 7/2009, 10/2009
Emerson Electric Co. designs and supplies product technology and delivers engineering services and solutions to a wide range of industrial, commercial and consumer markets around the world.

1. 3M Co. (MMM) – Yield: 2.5% | Total Gain: 73.72%
Purchases: 3/2009
3M Co. is a diversified technology company with a presence in various businesses, including industrial & transportation, healthcare, display & graphics, consumer & office, safety, security & protection services, and electro and communications.

Each of these gains were a direct result of applying a value approach to dividend investing by taking advantage of opportunities when the stock is trading well below its fair value. A dividend growth and value strategy are well aligned often provide the conservative investors with a double benefit. Consider the MMM case:

I purchased MMM near its low in March 2009 at $48.88. At the time I calculated MMM’s Mid-2 fair value to be $84.06 and saw no fundamental reason for the stock to be trading so low. Trading at 41% of its fair value, MMM had tremendous potential for capital gain. However, I don’t purchase stocks for my income portfolio based on capital gain potential. Fortunately, the same forces providing capital gain opportunities were at work on the income side. The low price produced an eye-popping 4.25% yield on the day the stock was purchased. This was for a stock that had only yielded in the mid 2% range, on average, over the prior 10 years.

In the interest of full disclosure, I think it only fair to also mention the stocks at the other end of the spectrum. Again there were several surprises here also:

6. Harleysville Group Inc. (HGIC) – Yield: 4.6% | Total Loss: (3.39%)
Purchases: 1/2010
Harleysville Group Inc. is a regional holding company for property and casualty insurance companies that operates in 32 states, primarily in the eastern half of the U.S.

5. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) – Yield: 5.4% | Total Loss: (3.89%)
Purchases: 10/2008, 1/2009
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures and sells prescription drugs that offers a wide range of treatments for neurological disorders, diabetes, cancer, and other conditions. The company also sells animal health products.

4. Nucor Corporation (NUE) – Yield: 3.7% | Total Loss: (4.16%)
Purchases: 10/2008, 7/2009, 11/2009
Nucor Corporation is engaged in the manufacture and sale of steel and steel products. As the largest minimill steelmaker in the U.S., Nucor has one of the most diverse product lines of any steelmaker in the Americas.

3. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – Yield: 3.7% | Total Loss: (5.91%)
Purchases: 2/2008, 4/2008, 6/2009, 12/2009
Johnson & Johnson engages in the manufacture and sale of various products in the health care field worldwide.

2. Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) – Yield: 2.8% | Total Loss: (8.54%)
Purchases: 5/2010
Colgate-Palmolive Company (Colgate) is a consumer products company, whose products are marketed throughout the world. Colgate’s Oral Care products include toothpaste, toothbrushes, oral rinses, dental floss and pharmaceutical products.

1. Paychex Inc. (PAYX) – Yield: 5.0% | Total Loss: (34.43%)
Purchases: 11/2007, 1/2008,
Paychex Inc. provides payroll accounting services to small- and medium-sized concerns throughout the U.S.

As noted above, Total Loss % is only measuring capital loss. With the exception of PAYX, the other stocks are well positioned for quick turnaround. LLY and NUE have a positive return when dividends are factored in. HGIC and JNJ have small negative returns as a result of the more recent purchases. CL’s negative return is also result of its recent purchase. Having a portfolio where your bottom stocks’ performance isn’t really that bad, is one of the things I love about dividend stock investing.

Full Disclosure: Long O, CNI, TEG, CTL, EMR, MMM, HGIC, LLY, NUE, JNJ, CL, PAYX. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

9 Stocks With a Sustainable Dividend *

D4L — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 07:30:23 +0000

To succeed as a dividend growth investor you must identify and purchase stocks with sustainable dividend growth. Put another way, targeted companies must be both capable and willing to grow their dividends. Obviously, we can not look into the future and see who will and will not perform. However, there are critical bits of information that we can evaluate today that often foreshadow the company’s future behavior. Here are some of the more relevant ones:

Years Of Consecutive Dividend Increases

Inertia is powerful force. Once a company has established a track record of growing its dividend over the decades and developed a shareholder base that expects higher dividends each year, it becomes increasing difficult for management to cut or fail to raise their dividend. No CEO of this type of company wants a dividend cut to occur on his or her watch. There are precious few Dividend Aristocrats remaining and those left enjoy their elite status.

Strong Financial Condition

Dividends are paid with cash, not earnings. The distinction is subtle, but very real. In its pursuit of theoretical perfection, the accounting profession has adulterated the financial statements to the point that it has become very difficult for non-accountants to interpret them. For example, 2009 was a tough year for Nucor (NUE). Its consolidated statement of earnings showed a loss of $237 million, down from 2008′s earnings of $1.8 billion. This decrease in earnings of $2 billion looks devastating until you consider flip over to the consolidated statements of cash flows and realize NUE’s management ran the business to maximize cash generation. The $2 billion decrease in earnings only equated to $688 million dollar decrease in free cash flow and while earnings were negative, free cash flow remained positive at $792 million, more than enough to cover the $443 million dividend payments.

Consider another example. In 2009 Eli Lilly’s (LLY) net earnings improved $6.4 billion, but its free cash flow decreased $2.8 billion. This oddity was primarily the result of how in-process research and development was accounted for. Here is an excerpt from their 2009 10-k describing the accounting:

Most of these acquisitions included IPR&D, which represented compounds, new indications, or line extensions under development that had not yet achieved regulatory approval for marketing. There are several methods that can be used to determine the estimated fair value of the IPR&D acquired in a business combination. We utilized the “income method”, which applies a probability weighting to the estimated future net cash flows that are derived from projected sales revenues and estimated costs. These projections are based on factors such as relevant market size, patent protection, historical pricing of similar products, and expected industry trends. The estimated future net cash flows are then discounted to the present value using an appropriate discount rate. This analysis is performed for each project independently. Pursuant to the existing rules, these acquired IPR&D intangible assets totaling $4.71 billion and $340.5 million in 2008 and 2007, respectively, were expensed immediately subsequent to the acquisition because the products had no alternative future use. The ongoing expenses with respect to each of these products in development are not material to our total research and development expense currently and are not expected to be material to our total research and development expense on an annual basis in the future.

In effect LLY realized a $4.7 billion dollar non-cash charge in 2008, which was an add-back to operating cash flow. There was no similar charge in 2009, thus the substantial increase in earnings.

When evaluating a company’s financial you must also consider competing uses for the free cash flow generated. Many companies generate significant free cash flow, but often that cash is already spoken for in the form of debt obligations. One of the key metrics I look for when evaluating a company is a debt to total capital ratio of 45% or less.

9 Stocks With a Sustainable Dividend

Using my D4L-Data spreadsheet to screen the 170+ stocks that I follow, I limited my search to stocks with the following characteristics:

- Years of consecutive dividend increases > 30 years
- Yield > 3.0%
- Debt to total capital < 45%
- Free Cash Flow Payout < 60%

Below are several stocks that meet the above criteria:

Company	Analysis	Yield	Div. Gro.	Debt/Cap.	FCF Pay.
Diebold, Inc. (DBD)	–	3.69%	57	34.73%	28.10%
Leggett & Platt, (LEG)	Link	4.47%	38	32.48%	29.34%
V.F. Corporation (VFC)	–	3.10%	36	23.73%	30.01%
RPM International (RPM)	Link	4.11%	37	41.42%	33.46%
Northwest Natural (NWN)	-	3.63%	37	9.79%	39.54%
Genuine Parts Co. (GPC)	Link	4.04%	54	15.74%	40.59%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)	Link	3.62%	48	22.33%	41.42%
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)	Link	3.62%	38	41.86%	42.99%
Automatic Data (ADP)	Link	3.30%	34	0.72%	47.64%

Bonus: Look For A Favorable Industry

Some industries are more stable than others. When the economy turns down and we are concerned about our job, we may discontinue our pest control or lawn service, but we will likely not stop taking our blood pressure medicine. Non-cyclical industries typically include pharmaceuticals, utilities, defense and certain consumer goods. A company’s ability to grow its dividend is directly related to its ability to grow free cash flow.

Full Disclosure: Long ABT, ADP, GPC, JNJ, LEG, LLY, NUE, NWN. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

38 Dividend Securities For A Well-Rounded Asset Allocation *

D4L — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 11:30:12 +0000

I am a firm believer that asset allocation plays a significant part in a portfolio’s long-term results. Recently, I received a question asking if you could have a diversified portfolio of dividend stocks. It is an interesting question that deserves further examination.

As for my portfolio, I consider asset allocation only when looking at my holdings in total. It would be much too difficult to maintain a good allocation within individual portfolios (income, growth, 401(k), Roth IRA, etc.), while trying to maintain my overall allocation. However, an investor could build a degree of allocation into a portfolio of dividend income securities. Consider the following:

Business Services Sector

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP)
Yield: 3.33% | Style: Large Growth | Analysis
C H Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW)
Yield: 1.86% | Style: Large Growth
Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD)
Yield: 1.16% | Style: Mid Growth

Consumer Goods Sector

Clorox Company (CLX)
Yield: 3.23% | Style: Mid Core
Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Yield: 3.04% | Style: Large Growth | Analysis
Procter & Gamble Company (PG)
Yield: 2.85% | Style: Large Core | Analysis

Consumer Services Sector

Genuine Parts Company (GPC)
Yield: 4.19% | Style: Mid Value | Analysis
Sysco Corporation (SYY)
Yield: 3.56% | Style: Large Core | Analysis
McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)
Yield: 3.22% | Style: Large Core | Analysis

Energy Sector

BP Plc ADR (BP)
Yield: 6.15% | Style: Large Value
Chevron Corporation (CVX)
Yield: 3.75% | Style: Large Value
ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM)
Yield: 2.56% | Style: Large Value

Financial Services Sector

Harleysville Group Inc. (HGIC)
Yield: 3.90% | Style: Small Value | Analysis
Chubb Corporation (CB)
Yield: 2.85% | Style: Large Value | Analysis
Aflac Inc. (AFL)
Yield: 2.38% | Style: Large Core | Analysis

Hardware Sector

Diebold Incorporated (DBD)
Yield: 3.67% | Style: Small Value
Linear Technology (LLTC)
Yield: 3.23% | Style: Mid Core
Raven Industries Inc. (RAVN)
Yield: 1.90% | Style: Small Growth | Analysis

Health Care Sector

Meridian Bioscience Inc. (VIVO)
Yield: 3.27% | Style: Small Growth
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Yield: 3.08% | Style: Large Core | Analysis
Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH)
Yield: 2.10% | Style: Large Core | Analysis

Industrial Materials Sector

Nucor Corp. (NUE)
Yield: 3.40% | Style: Large Core | Analysis
Emerson Electric Co. (EMR)
Yield: 2.90% | Style: Large Core | Analysis
3M Company (MMM)
Yield: 2.58% | Style: Large Core

Media Sector

McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. (MHP)
Yield: 2.63% | Style: Large Core

Pharmaceuticals Sector

Eli Lilly & Company (LLY)
Yield: 5.77% | Style: Large Value
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Yield: 2.97% | Style: Large Growth | Analysis

Real Estate Sector

Essex Property Trust (ESS)
Yield: 5.14% | Style: Mid Core
Corporate Office Properties Trust Inc. (OFC)
Yield: 4.29% | Style: Mid Core
Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)
Yield: 4.06% | Style: Mid Core

Telecommunications Sector

CenturyLink Inc. (CTL)
Yield: 8.10% | Style: Large Value
AT&T Inc. (T)
Yield: 6.54% | Style: Large Value | Analysis

Utilities Sector

Integrys Energy Group Inc. (TEG)
Yield: 6.61% | Style: Mid Value
Consolidated Edison Company (ED)
Yield: 5.59% | Style: Large Value
MGE Energy Inc. (MGEE)
Yield: 4.45% | Style: Small Core

Bonds

Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV)
Yield: 2.74% | Style: Short-Term Bond
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF (BIV)
Yield: 4.32% | Style: Intermediate-Term Bond
Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (BLV)
Yield: 5.16% | Style: Long-Term Bond

Needless to say, the above will not provide a perfect allocation, but it goes a long way to provide diversity in a portfolio focused only on income securities. In my personal portfolio, I buy the best available dividend securities and use my other investments to balance my asset allocation.

Full Disclosure: Long ABT, ADP, AFL, BIV, BLV, BP, CLX, CTL, CVX, ED, EMR, GPC, HGIC, JNJ, KO, LLY, MCD, MMM, NUE, PG, SYY, T, TEG. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

10 Stocks With 100+ Years of Dividend Payments *

D4L — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 11:30:54 +0000

Over the last couple of years we have seen companies fail to raise their dividend, cut their dividend and some even decided to stop paying their dividend. In some cases their financials did not warrant the change. One way to weed these out is to look for companies with a dividend culture. Below are 10 companies that have paid a dividend for over 100 years and have increased their dividend for at least 20 years. They are presented here in descending rank of how long they have paid a dividend:

#10 Chubb Corp. (CB) One of the largest U.S. property-casualty insurers, Chubb has carved out a number of niches, including high-end personal lines and specialty liability lines coverage.
Paid since: 1902 | Consecutive increases: 45 | Yield: 2.92%

#9 PPG (PPG) is a leading manufacturer of coatings and resins, flat and fiber glass, and industrial and specialty chemicals.
Paid since: 1899 | Consecutive increases: 36 | Yield: 3.55%

#8 Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) is a consumer products company, whose products are marketed throughout the world. Colgate’s Oral Care products include toothpaste, toothbrushes, oral rinses, dental floss and pharmaceutical products.
Paid since: 1895 | Consecutive increases: 45 | Yield: 2.13%

#7 The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is the world’s largest soft drink company. It engages in the manufacture, distribution, and marketing of nonalcoholic beverage concentrates, fruit juices and syrups worldwide.
Paid since: 1893 | Consecutive increases: 47 | Yield: 3.02% | [Analysis]

#6 The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) is focused on providing branded consumer goods products. The Company markets its products in more than 180 countries.
Paid since: 1891 | Consecutive increases: 53 | Yield: 2.92% | [Analysis]

#5 UGI Corp. (UGI) operates propane distribution, gas and electric utility, energy marketing and related businesses through subsidiaries.
Paid since: 1885 | Consecutive increases: 23 | Yield: 3.20%

#4 Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED), through its subsidiaries, provides electric, gas, and steam utility services in the United States serving parts of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
Paid since: 1885 | Consecutive increases: 36 | Yield: 5.42%

#3 Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) discovers, develops, manufactures and sells prescription drugs that offers a wide range of treatments for neurological disorders, diabetes, cancer, and other conditions. The company also sells animal health products.
Paid since: 1885 | Consecutive increases: 42 | Yield: 5.52% | [Analysis]

#2 Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) is engaged in the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products and petrochemicals. XOM is the world’s largest publicly owned integrated oil company.
Paid since: 1882 | Consecutive increases: 27 | Yield: 2.51%

#1 Stanley Works (SWK) is a worldwide producer of tools, hardware and specialty hardware for home improvement, consumer, industrial and professional use.
Paid since: 1877 | Consecutive increases: 42 | Yield: 2.44%

A strong dividend culture is a great place to start looking, but before buying we must also consider other factors such as: dividend fundamentals, ability to cover their dividend and fair value.

Full Disclosure: Long KO, PG, ED, LLY. See a list of all my income holdings here.