Calculating A Dividend Stock’s NPV MMA Differential

The basis of this calculation is a hypothetical $1,000 investment in a stock and a Money Market Account (MMA) earning earning a 20 year average rate (I use a 20 year Treasury as a proxy).  The value calculated is the net present value (NPV) of the difference between the dividend earnings of this investment and the interest income from the MMA over 20 years.  Other assumptions include: 1.) dividends grow at the calculated dividend growth rate, 2.) dividends are reinvested, 3.) share price appreciation is not considered, 4.) interest income is reinvested in the MMA. The dividend growth rate used is calculated as the minimum dividend growth rate of the 1, 3, 5, 7, 10 year dividend growth rate or 15%, if dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year periods, within the last 10 years of history.

Interpreting The NPV MMA Differential

The calculation takes into account the time value of money, thus if it takes too long for the stock’s dividend yield to exceed the MMA rate, then the calculation will return a negative value. This means you are financially better off to put your money in the MMA. If the dividend stock is a better investment then the NPV MMA Diff. calculated will be positive. Like dividend yield, it is desirable to have a higher NPV MMA Diff. But also like a dividend yield, if it is too high, you need to start asking why? The NPV MMA Diff. can be used to compare two or more investments.

Comparing Various Dividend Stocks NPV MMA Differential

Like all calculations, the value of the output is directly tied to the quality of the input (garbage in, garbage out). For the sake of the illustration let us consider the calculated inputs are correct and sustainable.

Which of these would you rather purchase:

- Vector Group Ltd. (VGR) with a 9.99% yield and a 3.61% dividend growth rate
- Chevron Corp. (CVX) with a 3.68% yield and a 5.95% dividend growth rate
- McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) with a 3.23% yield and a 15.00% dividend growth rate

Based on the NPV MMA Diff. they would be ranked like this:

1. McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) | NPV MMA Diff: 8,429
2. Vector Group Ltd. (VGR) | NPV MMA Diff: 6,640
3. Chevron Corp. (CVX) | NPV MMA Diff: 780

As you can see neither yield nor dividend growth is the sole determinant of value. Below are several other companies in ascending order of their NPV MMA Diff:

General Dynamics (GD)
NPV MMA Diff: (339) | Yield: 2.16% | Growth: 2.01%

3M Company (MMM)
NPV MMA Diff: (260) | Yield: 2.47% | Growth: 2.00%

Clorox Company (CLX)
NPV MMA Diff: 171 | Yield: 3.12% | Growth: 4.35%

Consolidated Edison (ED)
NPV MMA Diff: 537 | Yield: 5.37% | Growth: 0.85%

Lowe’s (LOW) | Analysis
NPV MMA Diff: 748 | Yield: 1.38% | Growth: 15.00%

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) | Analysis
NPV MMA Diff: 890 | Yield: 3.34% | Growth: 7.32%

National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN)
NPV MMA Diff: 972 | Yield: 6.91% | Growth: 0.00%

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | Analysis
NPV MMA Diff: 1,245 | Yield: 3.33% | Growth: 8.42%

Raven Industries (RAVN) | Analysis
NPV MMA Diff: 1,855 | Yield: 1.87% | Growth: 15.00%

TC PipeLines, LP (TCLP)
NPV MMA Diff: 2,255 | Yield: 8.01% | Growth: 1.74%

And if you believe all the underlying inputs (which I don’t), the top stock on the list is:

Courier Corporation (CRRC)
NPV MMA Diff: 54,801 | Yield: 5.56% | Growth: 15.00%

As with any projection based on historical information, the analyst must determine the sustainability of the inputs going forward. Put another way, past performance is no indication of future results. I have always heard the luckiest people in the world are those who work the hardest. In the same vein, the secret to finding the best dividend stocks often involves rolling up our sleeves and doing our homework.

Full Disclosure: Long CVX, MCD, MMM, CLX, ED, KO, NNN, JNJ. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)

A MLP is by far the most unique investment we will look at in this series. It combines the tax benefits of a limited partnership with the liquidity of common stock. MLPs are a product of the U.S. Tax Reform Act of 1986 and the U.S. Revenue Act of 1987. These laws define which companies are eligible to structure their operations as MLPs. To qualify, a firm must earn 90% of its income through activities or interest and dividend payments relating to natural resources, such as petroleum and natural gas extraction and transportation. Certain real estate operations may also qualify as MLPs.

Like other limited partnerships, MLPs pay no income tax, instead the liability is passed to the unit holders (MLPs’ name for shareholders). Instead of dividends, MLPs pay quarterly required distributions (QRD), based on the stated amount in the contract between the unit holders and the general partner. These distributions are not taxed when they are received. They are treated as a return of capital, thus reducing the cost basis of the investment. MLPs are extremely tax efficient.

However, this tax efficiency comes with a price. Once a year, each investor receives a K-1 statement providing details of the unit holder’s share of the partnership’s net income. K-1s can be quite large (I’ve had some up 30-40 pages) and complex for those without a tax background. Unit holders will record items such as their pro-rata share of the MLP’s depreciation, state taxes, etc. on their individual tax form. In addition to the tax burden, MLPs require more bookkeeping to track their basis. Each year the share basis is adjusted down by the amount of cash distributions and also adjusted by the unit holders allocation of net income. Below are some MLPs that have a history of increasing their unit distributions each year:

Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) – Yield: 6.60%
EPD is an integrated provider of natural gas and natural gas liquids services, including processing, fractionation, storage, transportation and terminalling. Years of distribution growth: 11

TC PipeLines LP (TCLP) – Yield: 7.80%
TCLP has interests in three interstate natural gas pipelines, including a 46.5% stake in Great Lakes Gas Transmission LP. Years of distribution growth: 11

Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) – Yield: 7.10%
SPH markets propane gas and other refined fuels to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers. Years of distribution growth: 11

Buckeye Partners LP (BPL) – Yield: 6.40%
BPL is one of the largest independent U.S. pipeline common carriers of refined petroleum products, with over 5,400 miles of pipeline. Years of distribution growth: 15

One way to avoid some of the tax headaches is to own MLPs via funds. The funds deal with the K-1s and issue 1099s to shareholders of the fund. This too comes with a price. Note the management fees of the MLP funds below:

Fiduciary-Claymore MLP Opportunity (FMO) – Yield 7.01%
Fiduciary/Claymore MLP Opportunity Fund is a closed ended equity mutual fund launched by Claymore Securities, Inc. It is co-managed by Claymore Advisors, LLC and Fiduciary Asset Management, LLC.
- Total Assets: $444.3 million
- Expense Ratio: 2.92%

Tortoise Energy Capital Corporation (TYY) – Yield: 6.43%
Tortoise Energy Capital Corp. is a close-ended equity mutual fund launched and managed by Tortoise Capital Advisors L.L.C. It invests in the public equity markets of the United States.
- Total Assets: $22.6 million
- Expense Ratio: 3.92%

Tortoise North American Energy Corporation (TYN) – Yield: 6.30%
Tortoise North American Energy Corporation is a close-ended equity mutual fund launched and advised by Tortoise Capital Advisors, L.L.C. The fund primarily invests in the public equity markets of North America.
- Total Assets: $148.9 billion
- Expense Ratio: 3.21%

Even if I could accept the high fees, there is one other item about MLPs that gives me pause. They are notoriously late in their tax reporting. It was usually well into February before the first K-1 shows up. Then I would normally get one or more corrected K-1s, sometimes as late as early April. MLPs provide excellent yields and are a tax efficient way to invest, but you must prepared to deal with their quirky characteristics.

Full Disclosure: No position in the aforementioned securities. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo: Steve Woods)

This week the dividend increase parade continues with several companies sharing higher cash dividends with their shareholders:

Stanley Works (SWK) is a worldwide producer of tools, hardware and specialty hardware for home improvement, consumer, industrial, and professional use. This past week increased its quarterly dividend 3.1% to $0.33/share. The dividend is payable on September 22, 2009 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on September 4, 2009. SWK is a Dividend Arstocrat and has increased its dividend for 42 consecutive years. The current yield based on the new dividend is 3.47%.

Lindsay Corporation (LNN) designs, makes and markets center pivot and lateral move irrigation systems. It also produces crash cushions, specialty barriers and diameter tubing, and offers outsource manufacturing. This past week the company increased its quarterly dividend 7% to $0.08/share. The dividend is payable August 31, 2009, to shareholders of record on August 17, 2009.  The current yield based on the new dividend is 0.91%.

El Paso Pipeline Partners (EPB) owns and operates natural gas transportation pipelines and storage assets. Earlier this week the company boosted its quarterly distribution by 12% to $0.33/unit. The distribution is payable August 14, 2009 to holders of record as of the close of business on July 31, 2009.  The current yield based on the new distribution is 7.06%.

TC PipeLines (TCLP)  has interests in three interstate natural gas pipelines, including a 46.5% stake in Great Lakes Gas Transmission LP.  Recently the company raised its cash distribution 3.5% to $0.73/unit. In a statement Russ Girling, chairman and CEO said, “Following the close of the acquisition of North Baja and the resetting of the incentive distribution rights, we are pleased to increase our distribution to unitholders. The addition of North Baja to our portfolio of high quality energy infrastructure assets further enhances our ability to deliver solid, sustainable cash distributions.”  The current yield based on the new distribution is 7.76%.

Park Electrochemical (PKE) designs, develops, manufactures, markets and sells digital and radio frequency/microwave printed circuit materials for telecommunications and Internet infrastructure. This last week the company increased its quarterly cash dividend 25% to $0.10/share. The dividend is payable November 5, 2009 to stockholders of record at the close of business on October 7, 2009.  The current yield based on the new dividend is 1.79%.

There are many companies that continue to consistently raise their dividends.  For stocks with a long string of consecutive dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: No position in the aforementioned stock. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)