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	<title>Dividends Value &#187; UL</title>
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		<title>Best Stocks for 2011 *</title>
		<link>http://dividendsvalue.com/7912/best-stocks-for-2011/</link>
		<comments>http://dividendsvalue.com/7912/best-stocks-for-2011/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Dec 2010 07:30:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>D4L</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[classics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AAPL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AGU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BBY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[COP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CVS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CVX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DOW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ENTR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EWBC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HPQ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LEN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MOS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MRK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSFT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RCL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RDS.B]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RIG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VZ]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dividendsvalue.com/?p=7912</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is a great time of year! The Christmas music, decorations, family gatherings, holiday plays and stock picks. Stock picks? Yes, &#8217;tis the season for stock predictions! Virtually every financial writer will pen an article selecting his or her top picks for the upcoming year. I enjoy reading them and the logic behind the picks. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/"><img id="036.DV" style="margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; float: left;" src="http://content.dividendsvalue.com/images/Pictures/036.Wreath-Dividend-Stocks.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a>It is a great time of year! The Christmas music, decorations, family gatherings, holiday plays and stock picks. Stock picks? Yes, &#8217;tis the season for stock predictions! Virtually every financial writer will pen an article selecting his or her top picks for the upcoming year.  I enjoy reading them and the logic behind the picks. As a <a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/1288/to-infinity-and-beyond/"><span style="font-weight: bold;">long-term buy and hold investor</span></a>, generally most aren&#8217;t useful for me; nevertheless, I find them entertaining and sometimes there is a gem to be found. Here are some picks for 2011&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-7912"></span></p>
<p>Jon Birger at <a href="http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/pf/investing/1012/gallery.investors_guide_2011.fortune/index.html">Fortune</a> notes that there&#8217;s still a real buying opportunity in growth stocks, with this years selections slanted toward commodities. Here are the 10 picks for 2010:</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>Mosaic</strong> (MOS) potash production capacity has grown 10% since 2006 and is expected to increase another 60% between now and 2020. And as it rises, the company&#8217;s stock seems likely to follow.  Currently yielding: 0.3%</p>
<p><strong>Agrium</strong> (AGU) earnings are on pace to jump 60% in 2010, and analysts are expecting another 44% bump next year. Currently yielding: 0.1%</p>
<p>Analysts expect <strong>Dow</strong>&#8216;s (DOW) 2011 earnings to be up 32% &#8212; on the heels of a 212% earnings improvement this year. (2009 was a disaster.) Best of all, Dow&#8217;s stock isn&#8217;t priced to reflect the growth company it has become. Currently yielding: 1.8%</p>
<p><strong>Transocean</strong> (RIG) is well indemnified against blowout-related liability. Oil prices have risen 17% since May as global demand has rebounded to 2007 levels and production isn&#8217;t keeping up with demand. Currently yielding: 0.0%</p>
<p><strong>Royal Dutch Shell</strong> (RDS-B) is a safe place to get a dividend yield. But it has a really good set of strategic initiatives going for it too. Currently yielding: 5.1%</p>
<p><strong>Lennar</strong> (LEN) has a history of making lemonade from real estate lemons. During the S&amp;L crisis in the early 1990s, it made a small fortune buying distressed properties at 30¢ or 40¢ on the dollar and then reselling them for 50¢ or 60¢. Currently yielding: 0.9%</p>
<p><strong>East West Bancorp</strong> (EWBC) is now believed to be the largest Chinese-American-focused bank in the country. Americans boast a savings rate 19% higher than the national average. Currently yielding: 0.2%</p>
<p><strong>Royal Caribbean</strong> (RCL) is trading at a modest 13 times 2011 earnings, but deserves a P/E closer to 17, which was Royal Caribbean&#8217;s average valuation from 1997 to 2007. Currently yielding: 0.0%</p>
<p><strong>Entropic</strong> (ENTR) is priced more like a value stock: At $9 a share, it trades at 11.7 times projected 2011 earnings. Currently yielding: 0.0%</p>
<p><strong>Apple</strong> (AAPL) is definitely not overpriced. Especially not for a company so well positioned in such fast-growing markets. Currently yielding: 0.0%</p></blockquote>
<p>In selecting their best stocks for 2011, <a href="http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/against-grain/top-5-value-stocks-for-2011/832/">CBS Money Watch</a> focused on value stocks and asked <strong>Tom Forester</strong>, manager of the <strong>Forester Value Fund</strong>, to come up with the “top five value stocks for 2011.” His list of companies are mostly household names  whose neglect or avoidance by investors leaves them trading at bargain  valuations. The list includes:</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>Microsoft</strong> (MSFT) has grown cheap over the years in line with the ebbing of the software maker’s reputation as an innovator. Currently yielding: 2.3%</p>
<p><strong>Hewlett-Packard</strong> (HPQ) reputation has been tarnished by the antics of some of the bosses making their way through the executive suite’s revolving door. The result is a PE ratio of about 7.5 times next year’s earnings as investors continue to shun the stock. Currently yielding: 0.8%</p>
<p><strong>Chevron</strong> (CVX) is the cheapest of the oil super-majors and is more sensitive than its rivals to the price of oil because more of its business is related to production rather than activities like refining. Currently yielding: 3.3%</p>
<p><strong>CVS Caremark</strong> (CVS) trading at roughly 11 times next year’s earnings, investors seem to be ignoring CVS’s valuable pharmacy benefit management business. Currently yielding: 1.0%</p>
<p><strong>Best Buy</strong> (BBY) should benefit from strong holiday sales of gadgetry like iPads, Kinect Xboxes, phones and big-screen TVs; and should continue to get a boost from the demise of Circuit City. Currently yielding: 1.7%</p></blockquote>
<p>Greg Sushinsky in an article on <a href="http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2010/Large-Cap-Dividend-Stocks-For-2011-VZ-T-MRK-BP-COP-CVX-CL-UL-KO1217.aspx">Investopedia</a> selected a sampler of some potent large-cap stocks which pay attractive dividends. Here are his selections and reasons for choosing them:</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>Verizon Communications</strong> (VZ) is expected to offer iPhones next year. Estimates are that it may land as many as 10 million activations when Verizon Wireless begins selling the iPhone. This will be a healthy addition to Verizon&#8217;s revenue stream. Currently yielding: 5.6%</p>
<p><strong>Merck</strong> (MRK). underlying business has healthy margins and cash flow generation. Even if you scale back the revenue and earnings projections the stock looks cheap. Currently yielding: 4.2%</p>
<p><strong>Conoco Phillips</strong> (COP) and other integrated oil company stocks tailed off after the BP (BP) oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently it sells for less than nine times earnings. Currently yielding: 3.4%</p>
<p><strong>Unilever Plc</strong> (UL) has a wide mix of businesses, and the stock got a recent enthusiastic analyst upgrade. The stock is a bit pricey now, but it is projected to continue its earnings rebound. Currently yielding: 3.8%</p>
<p><strong>Coca Cola</strong> (KO) continues to grow its earnings despite economic headwinds. The underlying growth and value of the company makes its dividend as solid and stable as any. Currently yielding: 2.8%</p></blockquote>
<p>As a long-term, buy-and-hold income investor, many of the stocks in the above lists don&#8217;t meet my criteria for a buy.  Dividend investors are looking for stocks that will perform well over the long run, not just 2011. As such, I prefer to start with <a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/analysis/stock-ideas/"><strong>this list</strong></a> of stocks.</p>
<p><em>Full Disclosure: Long CVX, KO. See a list of all my income holdings <a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/holdings/dividend-stock-and-etfcef-holdings/"><strong>here</strong></a>.</em></p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Related Posts</strong></span><br />
- <a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/4002/five-dividend-stocks-with-different-reasons-not-to-buy-2/">Five Dividend Stocks With Different Reasons Not To Buy</a><br />
- <a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/6348/20-dividend-stocks-with-a-20-yield-in-20-years/">20 Dividend Stocks With A 20% Yield In 20 Years</a><br />
- <a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/3478/optimizing-your-asset-allocation/">Optimizing Your Asset Allocation</a><br />
- <a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/7199/stocks-that-pay-monthly-dividends/">Stocks That Pay Monthly Dividends</a><br />
- <a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/7400/9-high-yield-managed-distribution-policy-funds/">9 High-Yield Managed Distribution Policy Funds</a></p>
<p>(Photo <a href="http://www.sxc.hu/profile/danyba">Daniela Baack</a>)</p>
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		<title>International Income Investing *</title>
		<link>http://dividendsvalue.com/2808/international-income-investing/</link>
		<comments>http://dividendsvalue.com/2808/international-income-investing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 10:30:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>D4L</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AOD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CNI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EFA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ETO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PID]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SHEN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SYK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UL]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dividendsvalue.com/?p=2808</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Any investor that understands the merits of asset allocation also understands the importance of including an international allocation in their portfolio. The concept is that in &#8220;normal&#8221; times there is always a market somewhere in the world rallying. To meet my set international allocation, I have focused on the following four areas of my overall [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5267550394187445186" style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 100px; height: 80px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_XUD5K9wgUGI/SRoZLMIC88I/AAAAAAAAAlo/6_ZYB1vTYSw/s400/1093334_world_ripples+dividend+investing+cash+wealth+money+life.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a>Any investor that understands the merits of <a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/113/rev-up-your-portfolio-with-asset-allocation/"><strong>asset allocation</strong></a> also understands the importance of including an international allocation in their portfolio. The concept is that in &#8220;normal&#8221; times there is always a market somewhere in the world rallying. To meet my set international allocation, I have focused on the following four areas of my overall portfolio:<span id="more-2808"></span></p>
<h3><strong>I. International Fund in my 401(k)</strong></h3>
<p>This International Equity Index Fund seeks to match the performance of the MSCI EAFE Index which consists of approximately 1,200 stocks in 21 developed market countries outside of North and South America, and represents approximately 85% of the total market capitalization in those countries.  When compared to other options in my 401(k), I have been generally pleased with this funds performance over time. YTD Return:  (-7.2%)</p>
<h3><strong>II. International Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) Within My Asset Allocation Portfolio</strong></h3>
<p>The international component on my asset allocation portfolio is in <strong>iShares MSCI EAFE</strong> (EFA).  EFA seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the European, Australasian and Far Eastern markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index. This fund is tracking the same index as my 401(k) above, but with somewhat better results. YTD Return: (-5.1%)</p>
<h3><strong><strong>III. Individual International Dividend Stocks</strong></strong></h3>
<p>It was my desire to have international representation within my income investments, so I first looked to identify good non-U.S. dividend individual stocks that had an ADR trading on the New York Stock Exchange.  To identify these stocks I used the <a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/1924/the-best-dividend-stocks-in-the-world/">International Dividend Achievers™</a> list.  To become eligible for inclusion, a company must be incorporated outside of the United States. The companies must be have an American Depository Receipt or common stock trading on NYSE, NASDAQ or AMEX. Companies must have paid increasing regular annual dividends for <strong>five or more consecutive years</strong>. What I found is that most companies outside the U.S. follow a different dividend model.  Here are some of the differences:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Many Foreign Companies Pay Dividends Based on a Percent of Earnings</strong><br />
This produces a very erratic cash stream. Consider <strong>Unilever plc </strong>(UL). Its ADR paid $0.353 in Nov/07, $0.668 in May/08 and $0.33 in Nov/08.</li>
<li><strong>Many Foreign Companies Only Pay Dividends Annually</strong><br />
I need more feedback than this. I would hate to wait a full year before learning a company plans to slash its dividend. Examples of annual dividends include <strong>Shenandoah Telecommunications Co.</strong> (SHEN), <strong>Siemens AG</strong> (SI) and <strong>Stryker Corp.</strong> (SYK).</li>
<li><strong>Most Foreign Companies Pay Dividends in Their Local Currency</strong><br />
Most Canadian companies pay quarterly consistent dividends, similar to companies in the U.S. However, they pay the dividends in Canadian dollars, so the currency risk is with the U.S. investor.  There is probably much less fluctuation between the U.S. and Canadian dollars than most other currencies. However, it exists. Consider the last five dividends on <strong>Canadian National Railway Company</strong> (CNI): Mar/08 $0.223, June/08 $0.225, Sep/08 $0.217, Dec/08 $0.189 and Mar/09 $0.200. The quarterly dividend dropped 10% from Mar/08 to Mar/09 in U.S. Dollars while it increased its dividend 10% over the same period in Canadian dollars.</li>
</ul>
<p>I am sure there are more, but one exception to all the above is <strong>BP plc</strong> (BP). BP&#8217;s ADR has paid a consistent quarterly dividend denominated in U.S. dollars.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>IV. International Income ETFs and Income Closed-End Funds (CEFs)</strong></strong></h3>
<p>One thought was that a market basket of international stocks in either an ETF or CEF would help mitigate some of the issues above. Many of these created problems of their own. Some such as <strong>Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund </strong>(AOD) has the option to invest in the U.S. also and when things turned ugly, they brought the cash home.  Other funds such as <strong>Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Global Dividend Opportunities Fund</strong> (ETO) and <strong>PowerShares International Dividend Achievers Portfolio</strong> (PID) have not performed well as dividend investments. Each has cut its dividend, with PID cutting multiple times.  I now question the wisdom of ETFs and CEFs inclusion in an income portfolio, but that is a different discussion.</p>
<h3><strong>Conclusion</strong></h3>
<p>After much consideration, I have concluded that income investing and international securities don&#8217;t mix very well for all the reasons listed above.  Going forward, my primary focus will be on U.S. equities for my dividend income portfolio.  I will use my 401(k) and my Asset Allocation Portfolio to ensure an adequate international allocation. As for the securities that I currently hold, I will individually evaluate the appropriateness of them remaining in my portfolio. Consistent with this methodology, I will remove most International Achievers from the <strong><a href="http://dividendsvalue.com/analysis/stock-ideas/">Stock Ideas</a> </strong>page, leaving only those that I own or have identified as being an excellent income investment.</p>
<p><em>Full Disclosure: Long EFA, CNI, BP, AOD, ETO, PID<br />
</em></p>
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